NH23E:
Wildfires: Triggers, Predictability, and Impact Assessment Posters


Submit an Abstract to this Session


Session ID#: 57680

Session Description:
Wildfire risks in a human-natural system continuum have become more concerning in the recent years, especially along wildland-urban interfaces and in densely populated and industrial areas. For example, the 2018 Mendocino Complex Fire has become the largest fire in Californian history; and the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfires scaled down Canadian oil production for two months affecting global oil. Meanwhile, wildfires remain one the least predictable perils due to both their aleatory uncertainty component mainly associated with wildfire ignition triggers, and their epistemic uncertainty component reflecting the lack of knowledge about fire fuel availability and its moisture content, physical setting, weather, and variability in climate. This interdisciplinary session covers topics related to wildfire including drivers/triggers, trends and anomalies, detection and monitoring, risk management and assessment, evaluation of socio-economic and ecological impacts. It also illustrates application of numerical modeling, machine learning, remote sensing, and laboratory or field data in this research field.
Primary Convener:  Christian Klose, Swiss Re, Data Science and Hazard Resilience, Armonk, NY, United States and Armando Gonzalez-Caban; Claudia Vitolo
Conveners:  Son V Nghiem, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, United States, Seung Hee Kim, Chapman University, Institute for Earth, Computing, Human and Observing (ECHO), Orange, CA, United States, Nataliya Le Vine, Swiss Re, Armonk, NY, United States and Armando Gonzalez-Caban; Claudia Vitolo
Primary Liaison:  Nataliya Le Vine, Swiss Re, Armonk, NY, United States and Armando Gonzalez-Caban; Claudia Vitolo
Chairs:  Amber Jeanine Soja, National Institute of Aerospace, Hampton, United States, Jinwon Kim, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo-si, South Korea and Armando Gonzalez-Caban; Claudia Vitolo
OSPA Liaison:  Jia Shenyue, Chapman University, Institute for Earth, Computing, Human and Observing (ECHO), Orange, CA, United States and Armando Gonzalez-Caban; Claudia Vitolo
Co-Organized with:
Natural Hazards, and GeoHealth

Proposed Co-Organized Session with:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • GC - Global Environmental Change
  • GH - GeoHealth
  • SI - Societal Impacts and Policy Sciences
Index Terms:

1616 Climate variability [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1920 Emerging informatics technologies [INFORMATICS]
4313 Extreme events [NATURAL HAZARDS]
4341 Early warning systems [NATURAL HAZARDS]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

WILDFIRE HAZARD EVALUATION IN THE METROPOLITAN AREA OF CONCEPCIÓN - CHILE CENTRAL (345620)
Edilia Jaque, University of Concepcion, Concepcion, Chile, Carolina Ojeda, Universidad Catolica de la Santisima Concepcion, historia, Concepcion, Chile and Rodrigo Fuentes, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile
MAPPING FOREST BURNED AREAS IN THE INDIO MAIZ BIOLOGICAL RESERVE USING SENTINEL-3 SLSTR IMAGERY (377312)
Noel Ivan Ivan Ulloa, Center for Space and Remote Sensing Research, Jhongli, Taiwan and Tang-Huang Lin, National Central University, Kanagawa, Japan
Quantitative evaluation of the influences of multiple factors on the differenced Normalized Burned Ratio in North American ecosystems (377442)
Dong Chen, University of Maryland College Park, College Park, MD, United States, Tatiana V Loboda, University of Maryland, College Park, United States and Joanne Hall, University of Maryland College Park, Geographical Sciences, College Park, MD, United States
Change of Vegetation Health inside Fire Perimeters in Southern California: An Analysis of Drought and Fire Interactions since 2000 (384629)
Jia Shenyue1, Seung Hee Kim2, Son V Nghiem3, Kristen L. Whitney4 and Menas Kafatos2, (1)Chapman University, Institute for Earth, Computing, Human and Observing, Orange, CA, United States, (2)Chapman University, Institute for Earth, Computing, Human and Observing (ECHO), Orange, CA, United States, (3)NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, United States, (4)Chapman University, Center of Excellence in Earth Systems Modeling & Observations, Orange, CA, United States
A GIS Multi-criteria Approach for Forest Fire Risk Assessment: a Case Study for Chios, Greece. (386041)
Nektaria Eleni Adaktylou, West Virginia University, Morgantown, WV, United States and Dimitris Stratoulias, GeoAnalysis, Gidofalvy Lajos utca 35. em.: 2 ajtó: 5., 1134, Budapest, Hungary;, Budapest, Hungary
Impact on river water quality by the wildfire in non-decontamination forest in Fukushima, Japan (405012)
Takayuki Kuramoto1, Naoki Nomura2, Seiji Hayashi3, Hideki Tsuji3, Hirotsugu Arai4 and Keisuke Taniguchi2, (1)Tokai University, Tokyo, Japan, (2)Fukushima Prefectural Centre for Environmental Creation, Miharu, Fukushima, Japan, (3)National Institute for Environmental Studies, Miharu, Fukushima, Japan, (4)Center for Ecological Research, Kyoto University, Shiga, Japan
Do Fuel Treatments Reduce Wildfire Suppression Costs and Property Damages? Analysis of Suppression Costs and Property Damages in U.S. National Forests (418389)
Jose J. Sanchez, USDA Forest Service, Vallejo, CA, United States, Armando Gonzales-Caban, Collaborative Researcher, CEESMO, Orange, CA, United States, John B. Loomis, Professor, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Fort Collins, CO, United States, Douglas Rideout, Professor, Department of Watershed Science, Fort Collins, CO, United States and Robin Reich, Professor, Department of Forestry and Watershed Science, Fort Collins, CO, United States
Sensitivity Analysis of Satellite-Based Indices for Fire Burn Area Using Sentinel-2 Images (426762)
Soo-Jin Lee, Geomatics Research Institute, Pukyong National University, Busan, South Korea and Yang-Won Lee, Department of Spatial Information Engineering, Division of Earth Environmental System Science, Pukyong National University, Busan, South Korea
Exploring spatial and temporal trends between wildfires, climate, and human development in the contiguous United States (437593)
Alicia M Kinoshita1, Atsushi Nara2 and Nana Luo2, (1)San Diego State University, Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, San Diego, United States, (2)San Diego State University, Department of Geography, San Diego, United States
Natural and social aspects of global wildfire threats to water supplies (437762)
Francois Robinne, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada, Dennis W Hallema, Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education, Oak Ridge, United States; USDA Forest Service Raleigh, Research Triangle Park, NC, United States, Ge Sun, USDA Forest Svc, Southern Research Station, Raleigh, NC, United States and Kevin D. Bladon, Oregon State University, Forest Engineering, Resources, and Management, Corvallis, OR, United States
Assessments of Factors Influencing Large Wildfires Using Remote Sensing Data in South Korea (446888)
Yun Gon Lee1, Kwang Nyun Kim2, Seung Hee Kim3 and Menas Kafatos3, (1)Chungnam National University, Daejeon, South Korea, (2)Chungnam National University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Daejeon, Korea, Republic of (South), (3)Chapman University, Institute for Earth, Computing, Human and Observing (ECHO), Orange, CA, United States
A Comparative Analysis of Temporal and Stochastic Estimation Techniques of Post-Wildfire Hydrologic and Geomorphic Risk (448771)
Jack Mikesell, San Diego State University, Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, San Diego, CA, United States and Alicia M Kinoshita, San Diego State University, Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, San Diego, United States
Observed Changes in Measures Associated with Wildfire Risk in California (454653)
Michael Goss, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States, Daniel L Swain, Stanford University, Earth System Science, Stanford, CA, United States and Noah S Diffenbaugh, Stanford University, Earth System Science, Stanford, United States
Live Fuel Moisture and Large Wildfire Trends in Southern California (454995)
Menas Kafatos1, Seung Hee Kim1, Jia Shenyue2, Kristen L. Whitney3, Francis Fujioka4 and Son V Nghiem5, (1)Chapman University, Institute for Earth, Computing, Human and Observing (ECHO), Orange, CA, United States, (2)Chapman University, Institute for Earth, Computing, Human and Observing, Orange, CA, United States, (3)Chapman University, Center of Excellence in Earth Systems Modeling & Observations, Orange, CA, United States, (4)Chapman University, CEESMO, Orange, CA, United States, (5)NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, United States
Study on Carbonized Temperature Estimation of Charcoal Remained in Burnt Area in Namie Town, Fukushima, Japan (458726)
Naoki Nomura, Fukushima Prefectural Centre for Environmental Creation, Miharu, Fukushima, Japan, Hirotsugu Arai, Center for Ecological Research, Kyoto University, Shiga, Japan, Takayuki Kuramoto, Tokai University, Tokyo, Japan, Tadafumi Niizato, JAEA Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Fukushima Environmental Safety Center, Fukushima, Japan and Seiji Hayashi, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Miharu, Fukushima, Japan
Rapid Assessment of Fuel Load Using the GLOBE Observer Fire Fuel App (460785)
Jennifer Taylor, University of Colorado at Boulder, CIRES, Boulder, CO, United States, Russell A Parsons, US Forest Service Missoula, Fire Sciences Laboratory, Missoula, MT, United States, Holli Riebeek Kohl, Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Lanham, United States, Travis Andersen, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States and David Overoye, Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Lanham, MD, United States
Introducing a Gridded Wildfire Risk Model in the United States for Allocation of Fire Management Resources Using NASA Satellite Observations (463473)
Alireza Farahmand, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States, John T Reager II, University California, Irvine, Irvine, United States; NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States, E. Natasha Stavros, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, United States, Ali Behrangi, University of Arizona, Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, Tucson, AZ, United States and James Tremper Randerson, University of California Irvine, Earth System Science, Irvine, CA, United States
Relationship of In-situ Live Fuel Moisture Measurement and MODIS data in Los Angeles County, California USA (466916)
Kristen L. Whitney1, Seung Hee Kim2, Jia Shenyue3 and Menas Kafatos2, (1)Chapman University, Center of Excellence in Earth Systems Modeling & Observations, Orange, CA, United States, (2)Chapman University, Institute for Earth, Computing, Human and Observing (ECHO), Orange, CA, United States, (3)Chapman University, Institute for Earth, Computing, Human and Observing, Orange, CA, United States
A Tool to Identify Convective Outflows in Numerical Weather Prediction Models for Fire Weather Forecasting (358014)
Janice Coen, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, Jordan G Powers, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, James F Bresch, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Mesoscale & Microscale Meteorology Lab, Boulder, CO, United States and Craig S Schwartz, NCAR/MMM, Boulder, CO, United States
Employing Seasonal Climate Forecasts to Develop Useful Products for Fire Managers in Alaska (371331)
Uma Suren Bhatt1, Akila Sampath1, Peter Bieniek1, Robert Ziel2, Ms. Heidi Strader3, Brian Brettschneider4, Alison S York5, Richard Thoman6, Ms. Sharon Alden3, GaBriella Branson7 and Peitao Peng8, (1)University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States, (2)Fuels and Fire Analyst, Dept. Natural Resources, State of Alaska, Falmouth, MA, United States, (3)Predictive Services Fire Weather Program Manager, Fairbanks, AK, United States, (4)NOAA, IARC,UAF, Anchorage, AK, United States, (5)University of Alaska Fairbanks, Alaska Fire Science Consortium, Fairbanks, United States, (6)National Weather Service Alaska Region, Environmental and Scientific Services Division, Fairbanks, AK, United States, (7)Predictive Services Intelligence Coordinator, Bureau of Land Management, Fairbanks, AK, United States, (8)Climate Prediction Center College Park, College Park, MD, United States
Machine learning in coupled wildfire-water supply risk assessment: Data science toolkit (378654)
Dennis W Hallema1, Ge Sun2, Peter V Caldwell3, Francois Robinne4, Kevin D. Bladon5, Rua S Mordecai6, Sheila M. Saia7 and Steven McNulty2, (1)USDA Forest Service Raleigh, Research Triangle Park, NC, United States, (2)USDA Forest Svc, Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, Raleigh, NC, United States, (3)Center for Integrated Forest Science, Southern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Otto, United States, (4)University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada, (5)Oregon State University, Department of Forest Engineering, Resources, and Management, Corvallis,, OR, United States, (6)U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, South Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Raleigh, NC, United States, (7)Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States
GEONEX: Enhancing Real-time Active Fire Detections from GOES-16/ABI data using Machine Learning (381569)
Jun Xiong1, Weile Wang2, Shuang Li1, Sangram Ganguly3, Andrew Michaelis4, Xiaowei Jia5, Satya N Kalluri6, Tsengdar J Lee7 and Ramakrishna R Nemani4, (1)NASA Ames Research Center / BAERI, Moffett Field, CA, United States, (2)NASA/AMES Research Center, Moffett Field, United States, (3)NASA Ames Research Center / BAERI, Moffet Field, CA, United States, (4)NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA, United States, (5)University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, United States, (6)NOAA College Park, College Park, MD, United States, (7)NASA, Washington, United States
Improving Wildfire Predictability via Machine Learning (413987)
Nataliya Le Vine1, Zakaria El Hjouji2, Louis Lecluse2 and Christian Klose3, (1)Swiss Re, Armonk, NY, United States, (2)Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, United States, (3)Swiss Re, Data Science and Hazard Resilience, Armonk, NY, United States
Predicting the impact of wildfires on watersheds in the continental US (441906)
Mary Ellen Miller, Michigan Tech, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, William Elliot, Rocky Mountain Rsch Station, Moscow, ID, United States, Peter R Robichaud, USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station, Moscow, United States, Michael Billmire, Michigan Technological University, Michigan Tech Research Institute, Houghton, United States and Anthony Chavez, Michigan Tech, Computer Science, Houghton, MI, United States
Observation-constrained modeling of wildfire spread in Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) communities in California (448081)
Nima Masoudvaziri, University at Buffalo, Department of Civil, Structural and Environemental Engineering, Buffalo, NY, United States, Fernando Jose Szasdi Bardales, University at Buffalo, Civil, Structural and Environmental Engineering, Buffalo, NY, United States, Negar Elhami Khorasani, University at Buffalo, Civil, Structural, and Environmental Engineering, Buffalo, United States and Kang Sun, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, United States
Remote Sensing Analysis of Pre-fire Controls on Burn Severity in Northern California Coastal Mountains using Random Forest Approach (452137)
Yuhan Huang1, Yufang Jin2, James H Thorne3 and Mark Schwartz1, (1)University of California Davis, Davis, CA, United States, (2)University of California Davis, Department of Land, Air, and Water Resources, Davis, United States, (3)University of California, Davis, United States

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