PA11A:
Aligning the Technical Analysis to the Needs of a Decision Maker for Water Resources Planning Under Deeply Uncertain Futures I


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Session ID#: 57699

Session Description:
Water resources management decisions are based on economic, environmental, and social assessments that are directly linked to the reliability of system performance. Deep uncertainties such as those associated natural variability, climate change, human migration, governance and macroeconomic conditions represent existential threats to the performance of water resource systems and make sound decision making challenging, particularly in the context of these systems long operational lives. This session examines methods that explore the vulnerabilities of these systems and lead to the formulation of robust and/or flexible adaptation strategies. It explores tools and methods that link scientific information with decision making in a deeply uncertain world. It seeks to showcase experiences from the US and around the world on the tools to support decision makers make decisions to address the unknown unknowns.
Primary Convener:  Guillermo Mendoza, US Army Corps of Engineers, Jacksonville, FL, United States
Convener:  John Matthews, Alliance for Global Water Adaptation, Corvallis, United States
Primary Liaison:  Guillermo Mendoza, US Army Corps of Engineers, Jacksonville, FL, United States
Chairs:  Guillermo Mendoza, US Army Corps of Engineers, Jacksonville, FL, United States and John Matthews, Alliance for Global Water Adaptation, Corvallis, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Guillermo Mendoza, US Army Corps of Engineers, Jacksonville, FL, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • GC - Global Environmental Change
  • H - Hydrology
  • SI - Societal Impacts and Policy Sciences
Index Terms:

1630 Impacts of global change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1637 Regional climate change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
6304 Benefit-cost analysis [POLICY SCIENCES]
6309 Decision making under uncertainty [POLICY SCIENCES]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Instationarity and time - the multiple challenges for deciding about adapation (359024)
Hans von Storch, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Centre for Materials and Coastal Research, Institute of Coastal Research, Geesthacht, Germany
Climate Change Risks Faced by the California Central Valley Water Resource System (395510)
Patrick A Ray, University of Cincinnati Main Campus, Cincinnati, OH, United States, Sungwook Wi, University of Massachusetts, Civil & Environmental Engineering, Amherst, United States, Andrew Mark Schwarz, California Department of Water Resources, Sacramento, CA, United States and Casey Brown, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Civil & Environmental Engineering, Amherst, United States
The Evaluation of Climate Adaptation Investments (422475)
John Kucharski, US Army Corps of Engineers, Jacksonville, FL, United States and Elizabeth Batty, US Army Corps of Engineers, Los Angeles, CA, United States
Weather-regime Based Stochastic Weather Generation for Process-informed Climate Vulnerability Assessments of Water Systems (423783)
Scott Steinschneider, Cornell University, Ithaca, United States, Patrick A Ray, University of Cincinnati Main Campus, Cincinnati, OH, United States and John Kucharski, US Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center, Davis, United States
Glacier changesand its spatial differences in across country catchments at marginal Tibetan Plateau (428540)
Qinghua Ye, ITP Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Establishing a national water resources system model to inform policy decisions about resilience of water supplies (437516)
Jim W Hall1, Helen Gavin2, Mohammad Mortazavi-Naeini3, Jonathan Dennis4, Paul Hickey4 and Jean Spencer5, (1)University of Oxford, Environmental Change Institute, Oxford, United Kingdom, (2)Ricardo, Bristol, United Kingdom, (3)University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom, (4)Environment Agency, Bristol, United Kingdom, (5)Anglian Water, Huntingdon, United Kingdom
Water Resource Planning Under Future Climate and Socioeconomic Uncertainty in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India (446040)
Ajay Gajanan Bhave, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom, Declan Conway, London School of Economics, London, United Kingdom, Suraje Dessai, University of Leeds, School of Earth and Environment, Leeds, United Kingdom and David Alan Stainforth, London School of Economics, Grantham Research Institute, London, United Kingdom
Navigating a Flood of Information: An Evaluation Framework for Integrating Climate Data and Uncertainty into Water Planning (446651)
Geeta Persad1, Tara Moran2, Juliet Christian-Smith3, Gemma Smith4 and Leon Szeptycki2, (1)Union of Concerned Scientists, Western States Office, Oakland, CA, United States, (2)Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States, (3)Water Foundation, Oakland, CA, United States, (4)Stanford University, Stanford, United States
Learning from Ecosystem-Based Science and Management to Inform Water Resource Planning and Policy in a Changing Environment (449630)
Franklin B Schwing, NOAA, NMFS Office of Science and Technology, Silver Spring, MD, United States and Roger S Pulwarty, NOAA, Boulder, CO, United States
Linking Scientific Research with Stakeholder Participation for Improved Water Supply Forecasting in the Upper Gunnison River, Colorado (468797)
Rosemary W H Carroll, Desert Research Institute, Division of Hydrologic Sciences, Reno, NV, United States, Frank Kugel, Upper Gunnison River Water Concervancy District, Gunnison, CO, United States, Jeffrey S Deems, Airborne Snow Observatories, Inc., Mammoth Lakes, United States, David Gochis, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, Logan Karsten, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, Joe Busto, Colorado Water Conservation Board, Denver, CO, United States, Reed M Maxwell, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States and Kenneth Hurst Williams, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States

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