A23D:
Extreme Weather Events: Forecast Skill, Uncertainty Quantification, and Impact Modeling I


Submit an Abstract to this Session


Session ID#: 58338

Session Description:
Severe weather in the form of winter storms, tornadoes, thunderstorms, hurricanes and heat waves is a cause of major disruptions in human lives, critical infrastructure and the environment. Skillful prediction of such extreme events through numerical weather prediction, statistical techniques or their combination in hybrid dynamical-statistical methods is crucial for managing preparedness, emergency response, and mitigation of impacts. Additionally, understanding forecast uncertainty (e.g. initial condition and model error, or unresolved physical processes) improves situational awareness and influences confidence in impact modeling. This session is dedicated to the assessment of extreme weather prediction and solicits abstracts from a broad range of research focused on forecasting extreme weather events, understanding sources of forecast uncertainty (e.g. through dynamical and statistical ensembles), and evaluating the influence of forecast uncertainty on preparing for and managing severe weather through impact modeling.
Primary Convener:  Marina Astitha, University of Connecticut, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Storrs-Mansfield, United States
Conveners:  Luca Delle Monache1, Forest Cannon2,3 and Ali Hamidi2,4, (1)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, San Diego, CA, United States(2)University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States(3)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), La Jolla, CA, United States(4)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States
Primary Liaison:  Marina Astitha, University of Connecticut, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Storrs-Mansfield, United States
Chairs:  Marina Astitha, University of Connecticut, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Storrs-Mansfield, United States, Luca Delle Monache, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, San Diego, CA, United States and Ali Hamidi, CUNY City College of New York, New York, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Forest Cannon, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • H - Hydrology
  • NH - Natural Hazards
  • SI - Societal Impacts and Policy Sciences
Index Terms:

1880 Water management [HYDROLOGY]
3329 Mesoscale meteorology [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3354 Precipitation [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4313 Extreme events [NATURAL HAZARDS]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Exploring Stochastic and Multiscale Modeling for Improving Extreme Weather Forecasts (Invited) (349002)
Aneesh Subramanian, University of Colorado at Boulder, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, United States
Tropical Cyclone Hazard to Mumbai in the Recent Historical Climate (Invited) (378517)
Adam H Sobel1, Chia-Ying Lee2, Suzana J. Camargo3, Huda Qureshi4, Kyle T Mandli5, Kerry Emanuel6, Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay7 and Mata Mahakur7, (1)Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, New York, United States, (2)Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States, (3)Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States, (4)Columbia University of New York, Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, New York, NY, United States, (5)University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, United States, (6)MIT, Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Cambridge, United States, (7)Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India
The Sixth Annual Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall Experiment: Synthesizing Atmospheric and Hydrologic Guidance for Short Range (6-24 Hour) Probabilistic Excessive Rainfall Forecasts (391601)
Benjamin Albright, Systems Research Group, Inc., College Park, MD, United States, Sarah Perfater, I.M. Systems Group, College Park, MD, United States, Michael J. Erickson, CIRES, College Park, MD, United States, Mark Klein, NOAA/NWS/WPC, College Park, MD, United States and James A. Nelson Jr, NOAA NWS Weather Prediction Center, College Park, United States
Using NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center Forecasts to Estimate Potential Societal Impacts from Severe Weather (460729)
Robert Allan Clark III1, Patrick T Marsh2, Russell Schneider2 and Somer Erickson3, (1)University of Oklahoma Norman Campus, Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, Norman, OK, United States, (2)NWS/NCEP/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK, United States, (3)DHS/FEMA, Norman, OK, United States
Experimental Subseasonal Forecasting of Atmospheric Rivers over the Western U.S. During Winter 2017-2018 and 2018-2019 (467687)
Michael J Deflorio1,2, Duane Edward Waliser3, Marty Ralph4, Jeanine Jones5, Alex Goodman6, Bin Guan7, Aneesh Subramanian8, Zhenhai Zhang9, Alexander Gershunov4 and Frederic Vitart10, (1)NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States, (2)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), La Jolla, United States, (3)NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, United States, (4)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), La Jolla, United States, (5)California Department of Water Resources, Sacramento, CA, United States, (6)NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, United States, (7)University of California, Los Angeles, Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, Los Angeles, United States, (8)University of Colorado at Boulder, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, United States, (9)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), La Jolla, CA, United States, (10)European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield, United Kingdom
Changes in Extreme Precipitation Events Over Eastern U.S. Urban Areas Reflected in Observed and WRF-model Hourly Precipitation Data (372311)
Anna Jalowska, US Environmental Protection Agency Research Triangle Park, Environmental Futures Analysis Branch, Durham, NC, United States and Tanya Spero, US Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, United States
Dynamic Representation of Storm Outages Using an LSTM Neural Network (434168)
Berk Ata Alpay, University of Connecticut, Computer Science and Engineering, Groton, CT, United States, David Walter Wanik, University of Connecticut, Operations and Information Management, Stamford, CT, United States, Peter Lawrence Watson, University of Connecticut, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Groton, CT, United States, Diego Cerrai, University of Connecticut, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Storrs, United States, Emmanouil N Anagnostou, Professor, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Storrs, United States and Kingsley Udeh, University of Connecticut, Storrs, United States

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