A21F:
Monsoons: Observations, Subseasonal, Seasonal, and Interannual to Decadal Variability, Forecast, Climate Change, and Extremes III


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Session ID#: 58458

Session Description:
Tropical and subtropical atmosphere feature summertime monsoon circulations, associated with seasonal changes in regional precipitation. These monsoons have tremendous socio-economic impacts through water resources, agriculture, hydropower generation, and ecosystems. Despite recent substantial progress, fundamental understanding and accurate predictions of monsoon variability at subseasonal, seasonal, and interannual to decadal time scales remains elusive. Furthermore, as the global climate warms, an understanding of variability and extremes is an even more pressing challenge.

This session invites papers on all aspects of monsoon variability and the impact of climate change. Papers discussing historical variability, impacts of climate change, land-atmosphere interactions, moisture sources, predictability of the monsoon at subseasonal, seasonal, and interannual to decadal time scales, model intercomparison, and projections of future changes due to global warming are especially welcome. Observational, modeling (both idealized and comprehensive), and theoretical studies are all welcome.

Primary Convener:  Ding Ma, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States
Conveners:  Spencer A Hill, Princeton University, Princeton, United States, Salvatore Pascale, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States and Ajaya Mohan Ravindran, New York University Abu Dhabi, Center for Prototype Climate Modeling, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Primary Liaison:  Ding Ma, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States
Chairs:  Salvatore Pascale, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States and Spencer A Hill, Princeton University, Princeton, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Ding Ma, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States
Index Terms:

1637 Regional climate change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
3305 Climate change and variability [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3314 Convective processes [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3374 Tropical meteorology [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Intraseasonal Oscillation and Extreme Rainfall Events of the Indian Monsoon in Observations and High-resolution Climate Model (Invited) (363769)
Venkat Krishnamurthy, George Mason University Fairfax, Fairfax, VA, United States
Decreasing trend of mesoscale convective systems over South Asia revealed by 18 years of TRMM observation (430921)
Tomonori Sato1, Ahsan MS Habib2 and Daisuke Hatsuzuka2, (1)Hokkaido University, Faculty of Environmental Earth Science, Sapporo, Japan, (2)Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan
Differences in the characteristics of northward propagation of convection on intraseasonal timescale over the two oceanic basins adjacent to India during summer monsoon (439213)
Nirupam Karmakar, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, United States and Vasubandhu Misra, Florida State University, Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, Tallahassee, United States
Asian summer monsoon response to forced changes of sea surface temperature (446481)
Xiaoqiong Li1,2, Mingfang Ting3, Dong Eun Lee2, Daniel Westervelt4 and Yi Ming5, (1)Lamont -Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States, (2)Columbia University of New York, Palisades, NY, United States, (3)Columbia Climate School, New York, United States, (4)Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States, (5)Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA, United States
Using the weather observations in US Naval Japan Expedition ship logs of Perry’s fleet for understanding the climate in East Asia during 1850s (427820)
Hisayuki Kubota, Faculty of Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan, Rob Allan, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom, Clive Wilkinson, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom, Philip Brohan, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom, Kevin R Wood, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, United States and Mark Mollan, National Archives and Records Administration, Washington DC, United States
CMIP5 representation of the austral summer precipitation variability and frequency over eastern Brazil (452834)
Marcia T Zilli, INPE National Institute for Space Research, Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil and Leila Carvalho, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, United States
Understanding Decadal and Interannual Variability in Rainfall over the Sahel (468923)
Rebecca Jean Herman, Columbia University of New York, Palisades, NY, United States, Yochanan Kushnir, Columbia Univ, Palisades, NY, United States, Alessandra Giannini, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States and Michela Biasutti, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States
Understanding Monsoon Changes Using a Normalized Gross Moist Stability Framework (421663)
Bryce E Harrop1, Po-Lun Ma1, Philip J Rasch1, Yun Qian1, Guangxing Lin2 and Hui Wan1, (1)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States, (2)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Richland, WA, United States

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