A31E:
Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Weather and Climate I


Submit an Abstract to this Session


Session ID#: 58560

Session Description:
There is growing interest in the scientific, operational and applications communities in developing sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S­) forecasts (2 weeks to a season ahead) to provide early warning of high-impact meteorological events such as tropical cyclones, floods, droughts, heat and cold waves. An extensive database of S2S forecasts and hindcasts from operational centers has been created by the WWRP/WCRP S2S project that enables sources of sub-seasonal predictability (e.g. sea-ice, soil moisture, MJO, tropics-midlatitude-poles teleconnections, stratosphere-troposphere interactions etc.) to be studied, forecast skill assessed, and early warning systems developed tailored to user needs. Contributions are solicited on all aspects of S2S prediction, with emphasis on studies making use of the S2S project database, YTMIT (Year of Tropics-Midlatitude Interactions and Teleconnections), and on possible influences of the 2015/16 El Nino on sub-seasonal forecasts.
Primary Convener:  Andrew William Robertson, Center for Climate Systems Research @NASA GISS, New York, United States
Conveners:  Duane Edward Waliser, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, United States, Kathleen Pegion, University of Oklahoma, School of Meteorology, Norman, United States and Cristiana Stan, George Mason University Fairfax, Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, Fairfax, VA, United States
Primary Liaison:  Andrew William Robertson, Center for Climate Systems Research @NASA GISS, New York, United States
Chairs:  Cristiana Stan, George Mason University Fairfax, Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, Fairfax, VA, United States and Andrew William Robertson, Center for Climate Systems Research @NASA GISS, New York, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Cristiana Stan, George Mason University Fairfax, Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, Fairfax, VA, United States
Index Terms:

0550 Model verification and validation [COMPUTATIONAL GEOPHYSICS]
1817 Extreme events [HYDROLOGY]
3337 Global climate models [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4341 Early warning systems [NATURAL HAZARDS]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

S2S Prediction and Sources of S2S Forecast Skill: A Focus on Stratospheric Pathways (Invited) (375516)
Andrea A. Lopez Lang and Hannah Elizabeth Attard, University at Albany State University of New York, Albany, NY, United States
Predictability of wintertime weather regimes over North America from submonthly reforecasts (434156)
Nicolas Vigaud, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States, Andrew William Robertson, Center for Climate Systems Research @NASA GISS, New York, United States, Michael K Tippett, Columbia University of New York, Palisades, NY, United States and Jing Yuan, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, United States
Can Euro-Atlantic Circulation Regimes Transitions be Tropically Forced? Results from Observations and the Metis ECMWF/COLA/NCAR forecast project. (367251)
Ralph Getzandanner, George Mason University Fairfax, Fairfax, VA, United States and David M Straus, George Mason Univ, Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, Fairfax, VA, United States
MJO Teleconnection Signals in the NASA GEOS-5 Subseasonal Reforecasts (437304)
Deepthi Achuthavarier1,2, Randal D Koster3, Siegfried D Schubert3,4, Jelena Marshak5 and Andrea Molod6, (1)Universities Space Research Association, Columbia, MD, United States, (2)Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (3)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (4)SSAI, Hampton, VA, United States, (5)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, GMAO, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (6)Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, United States
STRIPES: A New Index for Quantifying Regional Sensitivities to Remote Heating (375170)
Andrea M Jenney, Colorado State University, Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, CO, United States, Prof. David A Randall, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, United States and Elizabeth A Barnes, Colorado State University, Department of Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, United States
Tropical-Extratropical Interactions that Modulate Atlantic Hurricane Activity (Invited) (363073)
Gan Zhang, Princeton University, Princeton, United States and Zhuo Wang, University of Illinois, Urbana, United States
Assessing the Subseasonal Predictability of PV Streamer Activity compared to Tropical Cyclone activity using the Navy Earth System Model (416910)
Philippe Pierre Papin, US Naval Research Laboratory, Marine Meteorology Division, Washington, DC, United States, Carolyn A. Reynolds, U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, United States and Matthew Janiga, US Naval Research Laboratory, Marine Meteorology Division, Monterey, CA, United States

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