A32D:
Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Weather and Climate II


Submit an Abstract to this Session


Session ID#: 58566

Session Description:
There is growing interest in the scientific, operational and applications communities in developing sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S­) forecasts (2 weeks to a season ahead) to provide early warning of high-impact meteorological events such as tropical cyclones, floods, droughts, heat and cold waves. An extensive database of S2S forecasts and hindcasts from operational centers has been created by the WWRP/WCRP S2S project that enables sources of sub-seasonal predictability (e.g. sea-ice, soil moisture, MJO, tropics-midlatitude-poles teleconnections, stratosphere-troposphere interactions etc.) to be studied, forecast skill assessed, and early warning systems developed tailored to user needs. Contributions are solicited on all aspects of S2S prediction, with emphasis on studies making use of the S2S project database, YTMIT (Year of Tropics-Midlatitude Interactions and Teleconnections), and on possible influences of the 2015/16 El Nino on sub-seasonal forecasts.
Primary Convener:  Duane Edward Waliser, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, United States
Conveners:  Kathleen Pegion, University of Oklahoma, School of Meteorology, Norman, United States and Cristiana Stan, George Mason University Fairfax, Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, Fairfax, VA, United States
Primary Liaison:  Duane Edward Waliser, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, United States
Chairs:  Kathleen Pegion, University of Oklahoma, School of Meteorology, Norman, United States and Duane Edward Waliser, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Kathleen Pegion, University of Oklahoma, School of Meteorology, Norman, United States
Index Terms:

0550 Model verification and validation [COMPUTATIONAL GEOPHYSICS]
1817 Extreme events [HYDROLOGY]
3337 Global climate models [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4341 Early warning systems [NATURAL HAZARDS]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

The Sub-seasonal Prediction Experiment (374915)
Benjamin P Kirtman, University of Miami, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, Miami, FL, United States
Exploiting land surface data for sub-seasonal prediction (Invited) (383180)
Paul Dirmeyer, George Mason University Fairfax, Atmospheric, Oceanic & Earth Sciences Department, Fairfax, VA, United States
A Coupled model for operational sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasting (393105)
Arun Chawla, Tomorrow.io, Boston, United States
The Impact of increasing ensemble size on the skill of operational CFSv2 45-day forecasts.Part I: Deterministic Skill (369216)
Suranjana Saha, National Centers For Environmental Prediction-Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, MD, United States, Hugo M Van den Dool, Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD, United States and Malaquias Peña, Professor, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Storrs, CT, United States
Prediction Skill Provided by the MJO to Midlatitude Circulations on S2S Timescales (356119)
Dr. Kirsten J Mayer, PhD, Colorado State University, Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, United States and Elizabeth A Barnes, Colorado State University, Department of Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, United States
Evaluation of the predictors and skill for subseasonal statistical temperature forecasts over East Asia (351995)
Chueh-Hsin Chang1,2, Nathaniel C Johnson3, Changhyun Yoo2 and Chung Hsiung Sui4, (1)National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan, (2)Ewha Womans University, Climate and Energy Systems Engineering, Seoul, South Korea, (3)NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States, (4)National Taiwan University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Taipei, Taiwan
Skill of California Precipitation on S2S timescales (444738)
Michelle L L'Heureux, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, College Park, MD, United States and Michael Tippett, Columbia University, Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, New York, United States

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