A33E:
Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Weather and Climate III


Submit an Abstract to this Session


Session ID#: 58572

Session Description:
There is growing interest in the scientific, operational and applications communities in developing sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S­) forecasts (2 weeks to a season ahead) to provide early warning of high-impact meteorological events such as tropical cyclones, floods, droughts, heat and cold waves. An extensive database of S2S forecasts and hindcasts from operational centers has been created by the WWRP/WCRP S2S project that enables sources of sub-seasonal predictability (e.g. sea-ice, soil moisture, MJO, tropics-midlatitude-poles teleconnections, stratosphere-troposphere interactions etc.) to be studied, forecast skill assessed, and early warning systems developed tailored to user needs. Contributions are solicited on all aspects of S2S prediction, with emphasis on studies making use of the S2S project database, YTMIT (Year of Tropics-Midlatitude Interactions and Teleconnections), and on possible influences of the 2015/16 El Nino on sub-seasonal forecasts.
Primary Convener:  Andrew William Robertson, Center for Climate Systems Research @NASA GISS, New York, United States
Conveners:  Duane Edward Waliser, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, United States, Kathleen Pegion, University of Oklahoma, School of Meteorology, Norman, United States and Cristiana Stan, George Mason University Fairfax, Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, Fairfax, VA, United States
Primary Liaison:  Andrew William Robertson, Center for Climate Systems Research @NASA GISS, New York, United States
Chairs:  Duane Edward Waliser, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, United States and Andrew William Robertson, Center for Climate Systems Research @NASA GISS, New York, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Andrew William Robertson, Center for Climate Systems Research @NASA GISS, New York, United States
Index Terms:

0550 Model verification and validation [COMPUTATIONAL GEOPHYSICS]
1817 Extreme events [HYDROLOGY]
3337 Global climate models [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4341 Early warning systems [NATURAL HAZARDS]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Evaluating the Potential for Forecasts of Opportunity and of Extremes on Subseasonal Timescales using SubX (448907)
Dan C Collins1, Liwei Jia2, Emerson LaJoie1, Sarah Strazzo1 and Emily Becker1, (1)Climate Prediction Center College Park, College Park, MD, United States, (2)NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, United States
Harnessing forecast skill from SubX and the MJO for sub-seasonal prediction of North American climate (392063)
Sarah Strazzo1, Dan C Collins2, Andrew Schepen3, Q. J. WANG4, Liwei Jia5 and Emerson LaJoie1, (1)Climate Prediction Center College Park, College Park, MD, United States, (2)Climate Prediction Center College Park, College Park, United States, (3)CSIRO Land and Water, Dutton Park, Australia, (4)The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia, (5)NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, United States
Impact of initialized land temperature on sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction (ILSTSS2S) – A GEWEX/GASS Initiative (394259)
Yongkang Xue, University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), Department of Geography, Los Angeles, United States, Tandong Yao, CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Beijing, China, Aaron Anthony Boone, CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, GMME, Toulouse, France, Xubin Zeng, University of Arizona, Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, Tucson, AZ, United States and Daniel Klocke, Hans Ertel Centre for Weather Research, Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany
Land-Atmosphere Interactions and Subseasonal Heat Wave Forecasts from a Suite of Climate Forecast Models (353124)
Trent Ford, Southern Illinois University Carbondale, Geography and Environmental Resources, Carbondale, IL, United States and Paul Dirmeyer, COLA, Fairfax, United States
Subseasonal prediction of heat events across the US: status at the CPC, skill, limitations, future steps (359797)
Evan Oswald, NOAA College Park, College Park, MD, United States and Jon Gottschalck, NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Washington, DC, United States
Merging of extended- and seasonal-range forecasts to improve subseasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasts (378205)
Fredrik Wetterhall1, Francesca Di Giuseppe2, Blazej Krzeminski2 and Florian Pappenberger1, (1)European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom, (2)ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom
Application of Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) precipitation forecast in multipurpose multi-reservoir system for water and energy management (409375)
Dr. Sudarshana Mukhopadhyay, North Carolina State University, Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, Raleigh, NC, United States and Sankar Arumugam, North Carolina State University Raleigh, Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, Raleigh, NC, United States

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