GC32B:
Large Ensemble Climate Model Simulations: Exploring Natural Variability, Climate Change Signal, Extremes, and Compound Events at Various Spatiotemporal Scales I


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Session ID#: 58985

Session Description:
Several large ensemble model simulations, either from Global Climate Models (GCM), Earth System Models (ESM), or Regional Climate Models (RCM), have been generated over the recent years. They are breaking ground to investigate natural climate variability and how climate change signals may emerge from natural variability. Combining large ensemble simulations also provides long time series to investigate the dynamics of hydro-meteorological extremes and to assess compound events (e.g., successive or simultaneous extreme events) under conditions of climate change. This session welcomes studies using large GCM, ESM, or RCM ensembles and looking at the following topics: 1) impacts of natural climate variability; 2) assessment of extreme event occurrence in historical and future climate; 3) development of projections for compound events; 4) comparison of large ensembles including uncertainty assessment; 5) interpretation of the observational record; 6) suggestions for optimizing the observing network design; and 7) novel methods for efficient analyses and post-processing.
Primary Convener:  Keith B Rodgers, IBS Center for Climate Physics, Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea; IBS Center for Climate Physics, Busan, South Korea
Conveners:  Alain Mailhot, Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Eau-Terre-Environnement, Québec, QC, Canada, Emma E. Aalbers, Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, Netherlands and Flavio Lehner, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States
Primary Liaison:  Alain Mailhot, Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Eau-Terre-Environnement, Québec, QC, Canada
Chairs:  Emma E. Aalbers, Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, Netherlands and Martin Leduc, Ouranos, Montreal, QC, Canada
OSPA Liaison:  Ralf Ludwig, Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich, Geography, Munich, Germany
Index Terms:

1616 Climate variability [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1626 Global climate models [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1637 Regional climate change [GLOBAL CHANGE]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Large ensembles as a tool to understand changes in climate extremes: variability, trends and emergence of forced changes (Invited) (354145)
Andrea Dittus, University of Reading, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Reading, RG6, United Kingdom and Ed Hawkins, University of Reading, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Reading, United Kingdom
ENSO Change in Climate Projections: Forced Response or Internal Variability? (Invited) (406117)
Nicola Maher1, Daniela Matei2, Sebastian Milinski2 and Jochem Marotzke3, (1)University of Colorado at Boulder, CIRES/ATOC, Boulder, United States, (2)Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany, (3)Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Climate Variability, Hamburg, Germany
The case for constraining climate impacts uncertainty with a large ensemble (Invited) (379265)
Justin S Mankin, Dartmouth College, Department of Geography, Hanover, United States
Comparison of Multiple Single Model Large Ensembles Over Europe (377229)
Fabian von Trentini, Raul R. Wood, Florian Willkofer and Ralf Ludwig, Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich, Geography, Munich, Germany
Development of the Observational Large Ensemble for analysis of regional climate variability (357209)
Karen A McKinnon, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Descartes Labs, Santa Fe, CO, United States and Clara Deser, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, Boulder, CO, United States
Extreme Rainfall at Multiple Scales in Historical and Future Climate: How do Extremes From the Canadian CRCM5 Large-Ensemble Scale in Space and Time? (369788)
Silvia Innocenti, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Meteorological Research Division, Quebec City, QC, Canada, Alain Mailhot, Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Eau-Terre-Environnement, Québec, QC, Canada, Anne Frigon, Ouranos - Consortium on Regional Climatology and Adaptation to Climate Change, Montreal, QC, Canada, Alex J. Cannon, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Climate Data and Analysis Section, Climate Research Division, Victoria, BC, Canada and Martin Leduc, Ouranos, Montreal, QC, Canada
Using the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble to investigate changes in frequency of major precipitation accumulations in a warming climate (420295)
Jesse Norris, University of California Los Angeles, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, CA, United States, Gang Chen, University of California Los Angeles, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, CA, United States and J David Neelin, University of California, Los Angeles, Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, United States
Does the absence of sea ice in the Arctic have an influence on the occurrence of extreme events over the Eastern part of Canada? (379260)
Yann Chavaillaz1, Damon Matthews2, Philippe Roy3 and Diane Chaumont1, (1)Ouranos, Montreal, QC, Canada, (2)Concordia University, Department of Geography, Planning and Environment, Montreal, QC, Canada, (3)Ouranos, Montréal, QC, Canada

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