GC31C:
The Rate of Global Warming on Decadal to Multidecadal Timescales: Hiatus Events, Surge Events, and Climate Sensitivity I


Submit an Abstract to this Session


Session ID#: 59117

Session Description:
Improved understanding of the historical record plays an essential role in constraining climate projections, estimating climate sensitivity (ECS), and providing policymakers with more robust mitigation and adaptation choices.

In this session, we invite studies that focus on advancing understanding of the processes that drive global climate, particularly large scale temperature, on decadal and multi-decadal time scales. This includes climate system processes that are involved in decadal periods of accelerated or reduced global warming (so-called hiatus and surge events) in atmosphere and ocean, and processes that cause decadal variations in forcing. This session also invites contributions separating forced and internal variability and detection and attribution of climate change, estimating climate sensitivity from the historical record, understanding mechanisms and consequences of time-dependent feedbacks, and how the historical period can be used to constrain future climate projections and the climate sensitivity range.

Primary Convener:  Gabriele C Hegerl, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
Conveners:  Rowan Sutton, University of Reading, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Reading, United Kingdom, Piers Forster, University of Leeds, School of Earth and Environment, Leeds, United Kingdom and Bablu Sinha, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom
Primary Liaison:  Gabriele C Hegerl, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
Chairs:  Gabriele C Hegerl, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom and Bablu Sinha, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom
OSPA Liaison:  Gabriele C Hegerl, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom

Cross-Listed:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • OS - Ocean Sciences
Index Terms:

1610 Atmosphere [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1616 Climate variability [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1626 Global climate models [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1635 Oceans [GLOBAL CHANGE]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Multidecadal modulations of key metrics of global climate change (Invited) (427391)
Shang-Ping Xie, University of California San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, United States, Hiroki Tokinaga, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan, Nathaniel C Johnson, NOAA GFDL, Honolulu, United States; NOAA Princeton, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States, Yu Kosaka, University of Tokyo, Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, Tokyo, Japan and Xiaopei Lin, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
Reconciling the controversies about the “global warming hiatus” (441486)
Iselin Medhaug1, Martin B. Stolpe1, Erich M Fischer2 and Reto Knutti1, (1)ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland, (2)ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Zurich, Switzerland
The influence of Asian aerosol on the rate of global warming on decadal timescales (407881)
Laura Wilcox1, David Paynter2, Nick J Dunstone3, Massimo A Bollasina4, Tanja Dallafior5, Annica Ekman6, Hans Christen Hansson7, Dr. Vaishali Naik2 and Eleanor Highwood8, (1)University of Reading, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Reading, RG6, United Kingdom, (2)NOAA/ Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States, (3)Met Office Hadley center for Climate Change, Exeter, United Kingdom, (4)University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom, (5)Risk Management Solutions, London, United Kingdom, (6)Stockholm University, Department of Meteorology, Stockholm, Sweden, (7)Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden, (8)University of Reading, Department of Meteorology, Reading, RG6, United Kingdom
Detection and attribution of anthropogenic and natural signals in the ocean warming (398527)
Katarzyna B Tokarska1, Gabriele C Hegerl1, Andrew P Schurer2, Aurélien Ribes3 and John Fasullo4, (1)University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom, (2)University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH9, United Kingdom, (3)CNRM (Météo-France/CNRS), Climate research group, Toulouse, France, (4)NCAR, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, United States
Multi-decadal variability in the rate of global warming: what can observations tell us? (Invited) (420843)
Matthew D Palmer, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
An independent quantification of global ocean heat uptake from changes in atmospheric O2 and CO2 (404385)
Laure Resplandy1, Ralph F Keeling2, Yassir Eddebbar3, Mariela K Brooks3, Rong Wang4, Laurent Bopp5, Matthew C Long6, John P Dunne7, Wolfgang Koeve8 and Andreas Oschlies9, (1)Princeton University, Department of Geosciences, Princeton, NJ, United States, (2)Univ California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States, (3)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States, (4)CEA Saclay DSM / LSCE, Gif sur Yvette, France, (5)LSCE Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif-Sur-Yvette Cedex, France, (6)[C]Worthy, LLC, Boulder, United States, (7)NOAA Geophys Fluid Dynamic, Princeton, United States, (8)GEOMAR, Kiel, Germany, (9)GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany
Deep Atlantic-Ocean warming facilitated by the deep western boundary current and equatorial Kelvin waves (442507)
Zhaohua Wu, Florida State University, Tallahassee, United States, Min Zhang, The First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao, China and Fangli Qiao, First Institute of Oceanography, Qingdao, China

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