GC41C:
Interpreting Uncertainty in Climate Models, Observations, and Large Data Sets to Better Inform Scientific Understanding in Geoscience I


Submit an Abstract to this Session


Session ID#: 59161

Session Description:
Interpreting climate simulations, associated observational data, and assessing their uncertainties are essential to understanding changes in atmospheric, land, oceanic, and socio-economic systems and processes. Quantified uncertainty is needed to identify human-induced causes of climate change, to attribute the occurrence of extreme weather events to anthropogenic factors as well as to predict the impact of the evolving polar climate. We seek contributions in model interpretation, evaluation of models against observations, as well as studies that identify, quantify, or interpret uncertainty in climate models and/or observations. Contributions may address models and observations at multiple spatial and temporal scales. We welcome all studies in forecasting, sensitivity analyses, data assimilation and statistical inverse problems using climate, Earth system, integrated assessment, and impact assessment models.
Primary Convener:  Donald D Lucas, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States
Conveners:  Sihan Li, Oxford e-Research Centre, Oxford University, Oxford, United Kingdom, Elisabeth A Lloyd, Indiana University Bloomington, History and Philosophy of Science and Medicine, Bloomington, IN, United States and Linnia Hawkins, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States
Primary Liaison:  Donald D Lucas, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States
Chairs:  Sihan Li, Oxford e-Research Centre, Oxford University, Oxford, United Kingdom, Elisabeth A Lloyd, Indiana University Bloomington, History and Philosophy of Science and Medicine, Bloomington, IN, United States, Ambarish Karmalkar, University of Rhode Island, Department of Geoscience, Narragansett, RI, United States and Donald D Lucas, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Donald D Lucas, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • IN - Earth and Space Science Informatics
  • NH - Natural Hazards
  • SI - Societal Impacts and Policy Sciences
Index Terms:

1626 Global climate models [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1968 Scientific reasoning/inference [INFORMATICS]
1990 Uncertainty [INFORMATICS]
3275 Uncertainty quantification [MATHEMATICAL GEOPHYSICS]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Ethics and the science of regional climate change (Invited) (343963)
Theodore G Shepherd, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Parametric sensitivity and uncertainty quantification in the version 1 of E3SM Atmosphere Model based on short Perturbed Parameters Ensemble simulations (Invited) (352985)
Yun Qian1, Hui Wan1, Ben Yang2, Jean-Christophe Golaz3, Bryce E Harrop1, Zhangshuan Hou4, Vincent E Larson5, Leung Ruby1, Guangxing Lin6, Wuyin Lin7, Po-Lun Ma1, Hsi-Yen Ma3, Philip J Rasch1, Balwinder Singh1, Hailong Wang8, Shaocheng Xie9 and Kai Zhang1, (1)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States, (2)Nanjing University, Nanjing, China, (3)Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States, (4)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Energy and Environment Directorate, Richland, WA, United States, (5)University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI, United States, (6)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Richland, WA, United States, (7)Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY, United States, (8)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, United States, (9)Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, United States
The surprising utility of climate model complexity (414353)
Gavin A Schmidt, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, United States
Climate Science and Climate Policy (Invited) (345421)
Steven John Ghan, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, United States
The Implications of Climate Model Evaluation for Climate Model Interpretation (409329)
David Alan Stainforth, London School of Economics, Grantham Research Institute, London, United Kingdom; University of Warwick, Physics, Coventry, United Kingdom, Sandra C Chapman, University of Warwick, Centre for Fusion, Space and Astrophysics, Department of Physics, Coventry, CV4, United Kingdom and Nicholas W Watkins, University of Warwick, Centre for Fusion, Space and Astrophysics, Department of Physics, Coventry, United Kingdom; London School of Economics, Centre for Analysis of Time Series, London, United Kingdom
The Blessings of high Dimensionality: Explaining Ensemble Behavior. (430286)
Bo Christiansen, Danish Meteorological Institute, København Ø, Denmark

See more of: Global Environmental Change