GC51C:
Toward Better Understanding of the Impacts of Climate Variability on Agricultural Decision-Making and Longer-Term Adaptation I


Submit an Abstract to this Session


Session ID#: 59193

Session Description:
Climate variability (CV) is a critical driver of year-to-year impacts on agricultural systems. To properly understand its ecological impacts, it is necessary to quantify how managed ecosystems have historically responded to CV, and to characterize the uncertainty in projected biophysical impacts. In agricultural systems, assessing impacts of CV also requires understanding dynamics of farmer decision-making and adaptation in the face of both biophysical and economic uncertainty. Here we seek new efforts to quantify both historical and future impacts of CV on different types of agricultural systems varying by crop, farm size/intensification and climate/soils, including: i) empirical/process-based methods for estimating CV impacts across multiple spatiotemporal scales; ii) methods for forecasting the impact of CV on agricultural response at relevant scales; iii) translating forecasts into useful decision support for farmers and policy-makers; iv) attributing farmer responses to CV with respect to socioeconomic and ecological circumstances.
Primary Convener:  Lyndon D Estes, Clark University, Graduate School of Geography, Worcester, MA, United States
Conveners:  Lyndon D Estes, Clark University, Graduate School of Geography, Worcester, MA, United States and Sharon Gourdji, National Institute of Standards and Technology Gaithersburg, Gaithersburg, MD, United States
Primary Liaison:  Sharon Gourdji, National Institute of Standards and Technology Gaithersburg, Gaithersburg, MD, United States
Chairs:  Amor V M Ines, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, United States and Lyndon D Estes, Clark University, Graduate School of Geography, Worcester, MA, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Dr. Eunjin Han, Ph.D., USDA Beltsville Agricultural Research Center, Adaptive Cropping Systems Laboratory, Beltsville, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • H - Hydrology
  • SI - Societal Impacts and Policy Sciences
Index Terms:

1616 Climate variability [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1626 Global climate models [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1630 Impacts of global change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1807 Climate impacts [HYDROLOGY]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Characterizing and Detecting the Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Global Crop Yields (Invited) (350564)
Frances Claire Moore, University of California Davis, Department of Environmental Science & Policy, Davis, CA, United States and Alexis Hannart, University of Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Assessing changes of crop failure risks in the United States: The Impact from Large-Scale Climate Circulations (359365)
Tayler Schillerberg, Auburn University, Auburn, United States and Di Tian, Auburn University, Department of Crop, Soil & Environmental Sciences, Auburn, United States
Climate Variability and Coffee Productivity in Southern Guatemala (465833)
Diego Pons, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, United States, Mariela Melendez, ANACAFE, Environment, Climate Change and Renewable Energy, Guatemala, Guatemala, Florencio Pappa, ANACAFE, Guatemala, Guatemala and Rosario Gómez, National Meteorological Institute of Guatemala -INSIVUMEH-, Climatology, Guatemala, Guatemala
Quantifying the Effect of Farmer Management Decisions on Maize Yield in Zambia (457531)
Dr. Michael Cecil, PhD1, Katherine Baylis2, Jordan Blekking3, Kelly K Caylor4, Tom P Evans5, Megan Konar6, Justin Sheffield7, Dr. Noemi Vergopolan8, Kurt Waldman3, Yi Zhao9 and Lyndon D Estes10, (1)University of Maryland College Park, Geographical Sciences, College Park, MD, United States, (2)University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Agriculture and Consumer Economics, Urbana, IL, United States, (3)Indiana University Bloomington, Bloomington, IN, United States, (4)University of California Santa Barbara, Department of Geography and Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, Santa Barbara, CA, United States, (5)University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States, (6)University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Urbana, United States, (7)Princeton University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton, NJ, United States, (8)Princeton / GFDL, Atmospheric and Ocean Sciences Program, Princeton, United States, (9)Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States, (10)Clark University, Graduate School of Geography, Worcester, MA, United States
Downscaling Probabilistic Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecasts for Climate Risk Management in Agriculture (369861)
Amor V M Ines1, Kiyoshi Honda2, Dr. Eunjin Han, Ph.D.3, Clement Barras4 and Rassarin Chinnachodteeranun4, (1)Michigan State University, Department of Plant, Soil and Microbial Sciences, East Lansing, MI, United States, (2)Chubu University, Kasugai, Japan, (3)USDA ARS, Adaptive Cropping Systems Laboratory, Beltsville, United States, (4)Listenfield, Japan, Tokyo, Japan
Applications of Multi-scale Climate Information for Decision Supports in Agriculture (371979)
Dr. Eunjin Han, Ph.D., USDA Beltsville Agricultural Research Center, Adaptive Cropping Systems Laboratory, Beltsville, United States, Amor V M Ines, Michigan State University, Dept of Plant, Soil and Microbial Sciences, East Lansing, MI, United States and Nachiketa Acharya, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States, Palisades, NY, United States
Seasonal Prediction of Major Cereal Crop Yields in Ethiopia Using a Coupled Modeling Framework (411141)
Meijian Yang, Cornell University, School of Integrative Plant Science, Soil and Crop Sciences Section, Ithaca, United States, Guiling Wang, University of Connecticut, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Groton, CT, United States, Shu WU, University of Wisconsin Madison, Madison, WI, United States, Michael Eggen, University of Wisconsin Madison, Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment, Madison, WI, United States, Rehenuma Lazin, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Atmospheric, Earth, & Energy Division, Livermore, CA, United States, Muhammad Rezaul Haider, Rice University, Earth and Planetary Sciences, Houston, United States and Emmanouil N Anagnostou, Professor, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Storrs, United States

See more of: Global Environmental Change