Shale Gas and Tight Oil Potential in Eastern Canada: Some Numbers and What Lay Behind Them

English Abstract:

Unconventional reservoirs with variable potential for shale gas or tight oil have been identified in most provinces of eastern Canada. The resources are hosted primarily in onshore Late Cambrian to Early Carboniferous rocks although some speculative offshore potential also exists.

Where resource estimates have been proposed the numbers are invariably large, but in the absence of production history this potential is always qualified as an undiscovered, initially-in-place resource rather than a discovered reserve. While these estimates are based on strict geological, petrophysical and geophysical criteria, considerable uncertainties remain due to the scarcity of data and their possible lack of representativeness as it is often the case in initial stages of exploration. Beyond the initial resource assessments, key prospectivity drivers include the recovery rates, the geographical and regulatory constraints, the energy market and the political and social stability. Of course none of these parameters should be considered constant through time.

Overall, the current understanding of the shale gas and tight oil potential in eastern Canada is a necessary step forward but must be considered as a preliminary, semi-quantitative appraisal and should not bear an excessive weight in the debate over the pros and cons of a possible development of these unconventional resources. Regional, provincial-scale estimates convey the misleading impression that an entire basin will be ultimately covered with drill-holes while in practice only a few specific areas will prove to be worth developing in the long-term. Other – indirect – potentials are also part of the equation and have the benefit to strengthen the overall competitiveness of the provincial economies.