Development of a Ground Motion Prediction Method for Carbon Dioxide Injection Induced Earthquakes

English Abstract:

The process of injecting carbon dioxide into geologic reservoirs as a means of carbon sequestration is believed to increase the risk of induced seismicity in the region of injection. An important component in characterizing induced seismicity risk is the development of application-specific ground motion prediction (GMP) methods. A method is developed for a proposed injection site utilizing the induced seismicity GMP equations of Douglas et al., 2013, and incorporating site-specific adjustments. Development of the GMP model focuses upon situations in which there is very little in-situ data from the proposed site of injection. The resultant model can estimate ground motion response for induced events between M_w 1.0-4.0 at epicentral distances of 1-50 km, periods of ground motion between 0.01 and 0.5 seconds, and Vs₃₀ between 100 and 2000 m/s. A statistical consideration of input uncertainties for an uncharacterized site demonstrates that the total uncertainty of the method is large compared to regional-specific GMP models. However, analysis considering the reduction of input uncertainty through in-situ data collection indicates that the total uncertainty of the method could be reduced to levels appropriate for engineering applications, including probabilistic seismic hazard assessment.