Simulating Regional Impacts of Climate Change Mitigation Policies on the Global Timber Market: Implications for Regional Forest Management

John B Kim1, Brent Sohngen2, Sara B Ohrel3, James McFarland3, Erwan Monier4, Raymond J Drapek5, Bear Pitts6 and Jefferson Cole3, (1)US Forest Service Corvallis, Corvallis, OR, United States, (2)Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, United States, (3)U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Climate Change Division, Washington D.C., DC, United States, (4)University of California Davis, Land, Air & Water Resources, Davis, CA, United States, (5)USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station, Corvallis, OR, United States, (6)Oregon State University, Department of Forest Ecosystems & Society, Corvallis, OR, United States

Contact First Author: John B Kim; john.kim@usda.gov

Previously Published Material: The global vegetation simulation, which drives the global timber market analysis, was presented at the International Union of Forest Research Organizations (IUFRO) World Congress 2014 in Salt Lake City, UT. The proposed talk will cover the global vegetation simulation, its link to the global timber market analysis model, and the final results of the global timber market analysis.

Abstract ID#: 34516

 

English Abstract:
Climate change will bring different types of climate change to regions of the world, and will drive different types of responses by the various forest ecosystems of the world. In turn, the global timber market will dynamically respond to and adjust to the changing productivities of forested regions around the world. Local and regional mitigation strategies and forest management policies must take into account the not only forest responses to climate change, but the additional dynamics exerted by the global timber market.

As a part of the Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project by the U.S. EPA Climate Change Division, we integrated climate, vegetation and timber market models to estimate regional implications of global mitigation policies. The Emissions Predictions and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model and the Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) created three socioeconomic & emissions scenarios: Business-as -usual and two mitigation policy scenarios that stabilize radiative forcing levels in 2100. NCAR Community Atmospheric Model (CAM) linked to the IGSM generated 10 future climate projections. MC2 DGVM was run using the 10 climate projections, and the biophysical results from these models were used as boundary conditions for a global forestry and land use model (GTM). The resulting integrated climate-vegetation-economic modeling system is used to assess the implications of the three socioeconomic & emissions scenarios on various forest stocks, prices, and land use. Using the model, we estimate the regional impact of global mitigation policies on regions within the United States; explore the implications on regional forest mitigation policy; and assess the economic efficiency of alternative adaptation policies for the United States.

Back to: Climate Change Mitigation Potential of Wood-Use and Forest Management I