Economic feasibility of conifer afforestation in North America using a process-based growth model

English Abstract:

Anthropogenic emission of carbon dioxide is one of the most significant contributions to the global climate change. One potential option to reduce atmospheric CO₂ is to make use of forest growth. Afforestation and reforestation could be a cost-effective option to sequester atmospheric carbon. The Canadian Forest Service developed an investment analysis model, the Canadian Forest Service-Forest Bioeconomic Model (CFS-FBM) to examine the carbon sequestration potential of fast growing poplars as a substitute for fossil fuels. Unfortunately despite their fast growth, poplars are costly to establish and manage which affects their economic attractiveness. There is a need to examine other species and develop forest growth curves that better account for climate variability. Our objective is to develop spatial productivity estimates that better incorporate climate variability by examining and integrating long-term eddy covariance measurements and a process-based C and N coupled model, CLASS-CTEM+N, simulated fluxes in a spatially explicit productivity and economic model (e.g. CFS-FBM). The aim is to better depict the economic potential of conifer afforestation across North America. Preliminary results indicate that there is a strong correlation between net primary productivity and minimum temperature. Biological productivity is projected to increase in all future climate scenarios. It is also projected that net ecosystem productivity is expected to grow which constitutes for the increase in atmospheric carbon sequestration. Ultimately the study will examine the economic attractiveness of conifer afforestation with and without carbon sequestration as an economic value. By incorporating a growth process model directly tied to possible future climate pathways, it better depicts yield potential and helps determine what carbon would have to be valued at to make this type of afforestation attractive.