H42B:
Quantifying and Communicating Uncertainties in Changes to Hydrologic Extremes
Submit an Abstract to this Session
Session Title - en français: Quantification et communication des incertitudes aux changements des extrêmes hydrologiques
Session ID#: 6302
Session Description:
Defining how extremes have changed historically is challenged by limited observational data and statistical methods. Increases in the frequency and magnitude of hydrologic extremes can pose serious threats to society. Yet, methods developed for the mean of the distribution are often applied to project how extremes will change in the future. Quantification of uncertainties and effective communication are required to facilitate integration of results into planning and management. This session seeks presentations on the latest advances that can improve understanding of past trends and future projections of hydrologic extremes with focus on identifying and communicating uncertainties. Studies can include observation based analyses, statistical techniques, dynamical and statistical downscaling, hydrologic modelling, sensitivity analyses, syntheses and inter-comparisons.
Session Description - en français: L’établissement des changements aux événements extrêmes a historiquement été difficile à cause d’un manque de données sur le terrain et de méthodes statistiques. Des augmentations à la fréquence et à l’intensité des extrêmes hydrologiques peuvent poser des menaces sérieuses à la société. Cependant des méthodes développées pour la moyenne d’une distribution sont souvent appliquées pour projeter comment les événements extrêmes changeront dans le futur. La quantification des incertitudes et leur communication efficace sont requis afin de faciliter l’intégration des résultats pour la planification et la gestion. Cette session recherche donc des présentations sur les progrès de nos connaissances des tendances historiques et des projections futures des événements hydrologiques extrêmes se concentrant sur l’identification et la communication de leurs incertitudes. Ces études peuvent inclure des analyses basées sur des observations, les techniques statistiques, la réduction d’échelle dynamique et statistique, la modélisation hydrologique, des analyses de sensibilité, synthèses et comparaisons.
OSPA Liaison: Arelia T. Schoeneberg (Werner), Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada
Chairs: Arelia T. Schoeneberg (Werner), Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada and Stephen J Dery, University of Northern British Columbia, Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, Prince George, BC, Canada
Primary Convener: Arelia T. Schoeneberg (Werner), Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada
Conveners: Stephen J Dery, University of Northern British Columbia, Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, Prince George, BC, Canada and Eric F Wood, Princeton University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton, NJ, United States
Co-Sponsor(s):
Abstracts Submitted to this Session:
Suppressed Convective Rainfall by Agricultural Expansion in southeastern Burkina Faso (Invited) (36491)
Marc B Parlange1, Theophile Mande2, Gabriel George Katul3, Natalie C Ceperley2 and Scott Tyler4, (1)University of British Columbia, Civil Engineering, Vancouver, BC, Canada, (2)Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland, (3)Duke University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Durham, United States, (4)University of Nevada, Reno, Department of Geological Sciences and Engineering, Reno, NV, United States
Novel Supervised Nonlinear Dimensionality Reduction Techniques for Improvement of Statistical Downscaling Processes (34351)
Ali Sarhadi, PhD Candidate, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Canada, Donald H Burn, University of Waterloo, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Waterloo, ON, Canada and Chad William Thackeray, University of California Los Angeles, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, CA, United States
