B12A:
Climate Change Impacts at Regional Scales: Strategies for Efficient and Effective Simulation Studies I
Submit an Abstract to this Session
Session ID#: 6857
Session Description:
For global climate change projections to support management and policymaking by state/province, regional, and municipal governments, or by regional land managers and forest districts, the impact evaluation must be relevant at regional and sub-regional scales. Regional simulations of climate change impacts face multiple challenges, including how best to select a sub-set of scenarios from a large set of available data; downscale data to appropriate scales; select and evaluate impact models; connect or integrate multiple models; translate uncertainties between models and across spatial scales; and perform scale-appropriate analysis and interpretation of results that incorporates these uncertainties in management decision-making. This session invites explorations and success stories on how these challenges were addressed in climate impact simulation efforts, including, but not limited to, simulations of changes in vegetation, agriculture, hydrology, wildlife, and socio-economics at the regional scale.
OSPA Liaison: Julie A Vano, Aspen Global Change Institute, Basalt, United States
Chairs: John B Kim, US Forest Service Corvallis, Corvallis, OR, United States and Leo A Salas, PRBO Conservation Science, Petaluma, CA, United States
Primary Convener: John B Kim, USFS, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Corvallis, OR, United States
Conveners: Michael Case, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States, Julie A Vano, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States and Leo A Salas, Point Blue Conservation Science, Petaluma, CA, United States
Co-Sponsor(s):
Abstracts Submitted to this Session:
Evaluating Statistical Downscaling Performance Under Changing Climatic Conditions (Invited) (35098)
Keith W Dixon, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States, John R Lanzante, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States, Carlos F Gaitan, University of Oklahoma Norman Campus, Norman, OK, United States, Katharine Hayhoe, Texas Tech University, Climate Center, Lubbock, TX, United States and Anne Marie K Stoner, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX, United States
Quantifying Climate Change Impacts on Infrastructure: A Statistical Downscaling Application (Invited) (34648)
Anne Marie K Stoner, Texas Tech University, Climate Science Center, Lubbock, TX, United States and Katharine Hayhoe, Texas Tech University, Climate Center, Lubbock, TX, United States
From range retraction to population cycling: How spatially-explicit demographic models can inform climate change vulnerability (Invited) (34686)
Benjamin Zuckerberg, University of Wisconsin Madison, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, Madison, United States, Ilona Naujokaitis-Lewis, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, Madison, WI, United States and Lars Pomara, Forest Service, Eastern Forest Environmental, Asheville, United States
Reconciling scales for modeling the effects of climate change on wildfire (35814)
Uma Shankar1, Don McKenzie2, Jared Bowden3, Kevin Talgo4, Dr. Limei Ran, PhD1, Bok Baek1, Zachariah Adelman4, Aijun Xiu5, Mohammad Omary4, Elizabeth A Adams4 and Dongmei Yang4, (1)University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, United States, (2)US Forest Service, Pacific Wildland Fire Sciences, Seattle, United States, (3)North Carolina State University, Applied Ecology, Raleigh, NC, United States, (4)University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, United States, (5)Key Laboratory of Wetland Ecology and Environment, Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun, China
Cross Site Analysis of Projections of the Biogeochemical Responses of Forested Watersheds in the Northeastern U.S. to Future Climate Change and Increasing CO2 over the 21st Century Using a Dynamic Model (PnET-BGC) (34938)
Charles T Driscoll, Syracuse University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Syracuse, NY, United States, Afshin Pourmokhtarian, Boston University, Boston, MA, United States, John L Campbell, USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station, Vallejo, CA, United States, Anne Marie K Stoner, Texas Tech University, Climate Science Center, Lubbock, TX, United States and Katharine Hayhoe, Texas Tech University, Climate Center, Lubbock, TX, United States
Rendering Future Vegetation Change across Large Regions of the US (33925)
Felipe Sant'Anna Dias1, Yuting Gu2, Yashika Agarwalla1, Yiwei Cheng3, Sopan Dileep Patil4, Marc Stieglitz1 and Greg Turk2, (1)School of Civil and Environment Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, United States, (2)School of Interactive Computing, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, United States, (3)Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, Berkeley, CA, United States, (4)School of Environment, Natural Resources and Geography, Bangor University, Bangor, United Kingdom
Simulating Pacific Northwest Forest Response to Climate Change: How We Made Model Results Useful for Vulnerability Assessment (35815)
John B Kim, US Forest Service Corvallis, Corvallis, OR, United States, Becky K Kerns, USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station, Corvallis, Corvallis, United States and Jessica Halofsky, University of Washington Seattle Campus, Seattle, WA, United States
