PP32A:
Using Paleoclimate Modeling and Data to Constrain Future Predictions

Submit an Abstract to this Session

Session ID#: 6882

Session Description:
This session will explore new opportunities for exploiting paleoclimate models and data together to constrain future climate change. Within CMIP5 and other efforts, IPCC-class GCMs are being used to model multiple paleo-climate periods and events. Together with new paleodata syntheses that are published or underway, there are opportunities to assess model skill in 'out-of-sample' climate change experiments and to explore whether this provide clues for real world sensitivity.

We encourage submissions that tackle this issue head on by combining model results for the past and future. Work that assesses climate simulations against paleo-data syntheses are particularly encouraged. We also encourage more methodological approaches exploring the opportunities and highlighting potential pitfalls that may lie ahead, as well as work highlighting future experiments and data requirements to improve constraints moving forward.
OSPA Liaison:  Bruno Tremblay, McGill University, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Montréal, QC, Canada
Chairs:  Bruno Tremblay, McGill University, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Montréal, QC, Canada and Gavin A Schmidt, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, United States
Primary Convener:  Gavin A Schmidt, NASA/GISS, New York, United States
Conveners:  Bruno Tremblay, McGill University, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Montréal, QC, Canada and Julia C Hargreaves, Blue Skies Research, Settle, United Kingdom
Index Terms:

1620 Climate dynamics [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1622 Earth system modeling [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1626 Global climate models [GLOBAL CHANGE]
4928 Global climate models [PALEOCEANOGRAPHY]
Co-Sponsor(s):
  • AS - Atmospheric Sciences
  • OS - Ocean Sciences

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

PP32A-01
Opportunities and progress in constraining future projections (36784)
Gavin A Schmidt, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, United States and Allegra N. LeGrande, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States
PP32A-02
Anthropogenic carbon release rate unprecedented throughout the Cenozoic (34485)
Richard E Zeebe, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, Oceanography, Honolulu, United States, Andy Ridgwell, University of California, Riverside, Earth and Planetary Sciences, Riverside, United States and James C Zachos, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, United States
PP32A-03
THE PAST AND FUTURE DYNAMICS OF ECOSYSTEM COMBUSTION AND CLIMATE (35159)
Richard Paul Guyette, University of Missouri, Forestry, Columbia, MO, United States, Michael C Stambaugh, University of Missouri-Columbi, Columbia, MO, United States and Daniel C Dey, USFS Northern Station, Columbia, MO, United States
PP32A-04
Stability of the AMOC depends on the background climate (35183)
Aixue Hu, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, Maria J Molina, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States and Ayako Abe-Ouchi, University of Tokyo, Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, Bunkyo-ku, Japan
PP32A-05
Pliocene Climates and the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (35788)
Mark A. Chandler, Columbia University, NASA/GISS, CCSR, New York, NY, United States, Alan M Haywood, University of Leeds, School of Earth and Environment, Leeds, United Kingdom, Dr. Harry J Dowsett, PhD, USGS, Baltimore, MD, United States, Aisling M Dolan, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2, United Kingdom, David B Rowley, The University of Chicago, Department of the Geophysical Sciences, Chicago, IL, United States, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, University of Tokyo, Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, Bunkyo-ku, Japan, Bette L Otto-Bliesner, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, Dan John Lunt, University of Bristol, School of Geographical Sciences, Bristol, BS8, United Kingdom and Ulrich Salzmann, Northumbria University, Department of Geography, Newcastle-Upon-Tyne, United Kingdom
PP32A-06
Volcanoes and Water Vapor Feedback in the Past and Implications for the Future (35960)
Allegra N. LeGrande1, Kostas Tsigaridis2,3, Susanne Bauer3 and Gavin A Schmidt3, (1)NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States, (2)Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, United States, (3)NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, United States
PP32A-07
Using the Paleo-Record to Constrain Future Arctic Climate Change from Global Climate Models (34633)
Bruno Tremblay, McGill University, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Montréal, QC, Canada, David B Huard, Ouranos, Quebec City, QC, Canada, Gavin A Schmidt, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, United States and Anne de Vernal, University of Quebec at Montreal UQAM, Montreal, QC, Canada
PP32A-08
Using scaling fluctuation analysis to determine the accuracy of climate records and multiproxy reconstructions and the return periods of climate events (35059)
Shaun Lovejoy, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada
See more of: Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology