Development of Bureau's Operational Ocean Prediction Systems

The Bureau of Meteorology has delivered operational daily ocean forecasts of temperature, salinity, sea level and currents since 2007 underpinned by the Ocean Model, Analysis and Prediction System (OceanMAPS) developed through the Bluelink research projects. OceanMAPS version 3 is based on a near-global Modular Ocean Model (MOM) version 5 with 1/10 x 1/10 degree horizontal resolution and 51 vertical levels. An ensemble optimal interpolation method is applied: based on the ensemble Kalman Filter (ENKF-C) to assimilate satellite altimetry, satellite SST and in situ profiles on a 3-day cycle. Three independent and time-lagged forecast systems provide guidance on forecast uncertainty.

This presentation will give an overview of current operational system configurations and recent improvements to the new observing platforms. This includes new atmospheric fluxes derived from the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS) global system, diagnosis of forecast anomalies during ocean extreme events and characterization of their significance based on a 20 year data assimilating ocean reanalysis. This presentation will also cover several research developments in progress which include: a new fully global ocean sea-ice model based on the Modular Ocean Model version 5 with 75 vertical levels optimised for the observed variability; and an ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation system which provides the basis for generating probabilistic global ensemble ocean forecasts. Finally, we will briefly describe a new research initiative to forecast the maritime continent region with a 1/50 x 1/50 degree regional downscaled ocean prediction system