On the seasonal cycle of sea ice in the eastern Arctic Ocean
On the seasonal cycle of sea ice in the eastern Arctic Ocean
Abstract:
The area of open ocean at the end of summer in the eastern and central Arctic has been increasing in
recent decades and is projected to continue to increase in the future. We develop an analytic theory
for the seasonal cycle of sea ice through nondimensionalization and asymptotic scaling of the momentum
and thermodynamic equations. Inherent time and length scales are identified that reveal how the
competition between advection and heat exchange with the atmosphere governs the amplitude and
phase of ice growth. Under future climate projections, the theory predicts a doubling of open water in
the summer and a 25% reduction in the annual mean ice thickness. Expected increases in wind speed
and atmospheric temperature are both important in producing these changes.
recent decades and is projected to continue to increase in the future. We develop an analytic theory
for the seasonal cycle of sea ice through nondimensionalization and asymptotic scaling of the momentum
and thermodynamic equations. Inherent time and length scales are identified that reveal how the
competition between advection and heat exchange with the atmosphere governs the amplitude and
phase of ice growth. Under future climate projections, the theory predicts a doubling of open water in
the summer and a 25% reduction in the annual mean ice thickness. Expected increases in wind speed
and atmospheric temperature are both important in producing these changes.