Ensemble simulations of munitions mobility

Munitions are present in nearshore environments at some active and formerly used defense sites. The mobility and burial of munitions in nearshore environments depends on munition characteristics, sediment type, and the hydro- and morphodynamic conditions at the site. The focus of the present study is to develop the capability to estimate munitions mobility and burial with a system of models for hydro- and morphodynamics loosely coupled with a Bayesian network describing munitions behavior. Waves, currents, and sediment transport are modeled using Delft3D. Munitions mobility and burial are modeled using the Unexploded Munitions Expert System (UnMES). The coupled model was set up and tested at the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Field Research Facility in Duck, NC during the passage of several Northeaster storms and Hurricane Joaquin in 2015. Model results are compared with a field study of munitions. Simulation results showing burial of the munitions match observations of burial from observations. The modeling system presented here will be used to develop decision support tools for site managers.