Modeling Seasonal and Interannual Variability of Great Lakes Ice Cover using FVCOM+ice+wave Model

Jia Wang, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, United States, Peng Bai, NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, United States, Ayumi Fujisaki-Manome, Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, James Andrew Kessler, NOAA, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI, United States and Philip Chu, NOAA, United States
Abstract:
A 3-d, unstructured Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model coupled with ice and wave models was applied to all five Great Lakes simultaneously to simulate circulation and thermal structure from 1993 to 2016. Model results are compared to available observations of currents and temperature and ice cover. Seasonal cycle and interannual variability for all the five Great lakes were presented. Lake circulation was reasonably reproduced in comparison to the existing observation. The temperature structure was also reproduced reasonably well. The lake dynamics and thermodyanmics exhibit significant annual and interannual variations. Simulated lake ice cover was validated with satellite-measured ice cover for both seasonal cycle and interannual variability. Sensitivity study was conducted on 1) surface wind-wave mixing parameterization, 2) different forcing fields, and 3) different numerical time integration schemes.
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