Does warm ocean eddy favor rapid intensification of tropical cyclone?

Shih-Ming Huang and Lie-Yauw Oey, NCU National Central University of Taiwan, Jhongli, Taiwan
Abstract:
It is a common belief that a tropical cyclone crossing over a warm ocean eddy favors rapid intensification (maximum wind speed change > 15 m/s/24h). Here we quantify the process through a large ensemble of numerical experiments under idealized conditions favorable to intensification: constant Coriolis, no environmental wind shear, zero storm translation, and no self-induced ocean cooling. We find that upward sea-to-air enthalpy flux increases as the warm eddy is crossed, and low-level moisture convergence, updraft, and upper-level outflow increase near the cyclone core, but the resulting intensification, while statistically significant, is small (1~4 m/s), and the number of more intense cyclones is insignificantly different from storms without warm eddies. Our results support a recent global observational analysis [Zhang and Oey 2019, MWR, 47, 311-328] that shows no significant relationship of intense tropical cyclones and warm ocean features.