Air-sea interaction and memory of Indian Ocean in MJO prediction of JMA’s coupled seasonal prediction system

Takuya Komori1, Shoji Hirahara2, Yutaro Kubo2, Yukimasa Adachi2, Yosuke Fujii3, Ichiro Ishikawa4 and Takuma Yoshida1, (1)Numerical Prediction Development Center, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, Japan, (2)Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan, (3)Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, Japan, (4)Meteorological Research Inst, Tsukuba, Japan
Abstract:
Better prediction skill of air-sea interactions and variation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity are crucial in light of link between operational weather and climate predictions. In this study, JMA's next-generation coupled seasonal prediction system (JMA/MRI-CPS3), containing an ocean model with an eddy-permitting resolution, is used to investigate its performance of MJO prediction over the Indian Ocean during the Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO) period.

Predicted backward-tilting vertical structure of eastward propagating MJOs is commonly reproduced, which are promising preliminary results by the new system. On the other hand, comparison with in-situ and satellite observations demonstrates some issues to make the performance better. Simulated strength difference of air-sea interactions can be unclear, partly due to memory of the ocean affected by initial shock and error growth. Relevant prediction skills of other tropical waves will be also discussed.

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