Studying Lag Among Upwelling Metrics: Using Remotely Sensed Environmental Data to Predict Blue Whale Distribution in the South Taranaki Bight, New Zealand

A blue whale foraging ground was recently documented in the South Taranaki Bight (STB), of New Zealand, which is also dominated by industrial activities like seismic surveys, oil and gas extraction, and ship traffic. The New Zealand government has proposed a ‘blue whale sanctuary’ in the STB, and this research aims to inform the design of this protected area using dynamic management based on remotely sensed data. Blue whale prey (krill) aggregate in the STB as a function of oceanographic patterns resulting from a wind-driven upwelling system. A cross correlation analysis among upwelling metrics (sea surface temperature, primary productivity, and wind) was conducted to measure the temporal lag between large wind events (that drive upwelling) and blue whale aggregations. Results indicate a mean lag of 1.607 weeks between the start of a wind event and beginning of a blue whale aggregation in the STB, highlighting predictive promise for management applications.