Performance Report Card for NOS 3-D hydrodynamic models during extreme events

NOAA’s National Ocean Service (NOS) provides both real-time observations and regional model forecast guidance to ensure safe and efficient maritime commerce and navigation. Water level predictions from NOS’ network of regional 3-D operational forecast model systems (OFS) during extreme events such as tropical cyclones and nor’easters continue to be evaluated due to the infrequent nature and complexity of these events. We statistically examine model performance by analyzing water level observations and model forecast guidance (48-60 hours) during recent storms along the East and Gulf coasts of the US, such as hurricanes Barry (2019), Nate (2017) and Irma (2017), and the winter storms of January 2016 and March 2018. These analyses will be combined into a suite of automated routines using documented performance metrics that will allow for rapid assessment of the spatial and temporal variations between model forecast guidance and observations. Preliminary results suggest that for many monitored locations, modeled water levels are generally in agreement with observations before, during, and after the storm. Ongoing evaluation and monitoring of the performance of model forecast guidance from NOS’ operational hydrodynamic models will inform improvements to these modeling systems, especially during extreme events, and improve applications beyond navigation.