Future Nearshore Wave Climate Projection for the Northwestern Atlantic
Climatological (25-year) significant wave height differences between future and historical periods indicate that a seesaw effect will occur, with decreases occurring in the Northwest Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico and increases occurring in the Caribbean Sea. These differences coincide with similar changes in surface winds and there are sharp decreases (~20%) in incident shoreline energy along the Eastern Seaboard. Changes in extreme wave statistics do not follow the same pattern and there are increases in extreme wave heights along the northern Eastern Seaboard and parts of the Caribbean. Further details of the projection will be discussed, including underlying changes, model uncertainty, and extreme wave height analysis.