The Forecasting Model of the Environmental Dynamics of the Northern Adriatic Sea. Structure and Preliminary Results.

Isabella Scroccaro1, Marco Zavatarelli1 and Tomas Lovato2, (1)University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy, (2)Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change Foundation, Bologna, Italy
Abstract:
In the framework of the European Project H2020 "ODYSSEA" (Operating a network of integrated observatory systems in the Mediterranean SEA, http://odysseaplatform.eu/) a forecasting modeling system of the coupled physical and biogeochemical conditions of the Northern Adriatic Sea is under development.
The modeling system consists of the on-line coupling of the European general circulation model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean, https://www.nemo-ocean.eu/), with the marine biogeochemical model BFM (Biogeochemical Flux Model, bfm-community.eu/).
The biogeochemical component of the model includes the simulation of the biogeochemical processes of both water column and sediments and their coupling.
The system is implemented with a horizontal resolution of about 800 m and a vertical resolution of 2 m, in z coordinates. The atmospheric forcing consists of forecasts and analyses from national and international meteorological centers. The river supplies of fresh water and nutrient salts consider the daily runoff of the Po river, while climatological values are taken into account for the other rivers within the study area.
The open boundary conditions of the modeling system come from the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS, http://marine.copernicus.eu/).
In this work, results obtained from hindcast simulations of recent decades are validated against the available observations, from in situ and satellite platforms, for sea surface temperatures, chlorophyll-a and dissolved inorganic nutrients. The pre-operational forecasting system will be presented too, along with an analysis of the predicted environmental conditions.