Impact of compounding atmospheric events on shelf heat content in a river-influenced shelf system: Potential implications for Hurricane Michael

Hurricane Michael in 2018 was one of the strongest storms to impact the coastal U.S. and was unusual given that it occurred in October (i.e., late in the hurricane season) and intensified over the continental shelf. A potential contributor to this extreme event was thought to be anomalously high heat content on the shelf of the Mississippi Bight, a shelf region significantly impacted by freshwater discharge. Using available long-term time series of regional meteorological and oceanic measurements, water column conditions during the run-up to the rapid intensification of Hurricane Michael were compared to historical conditions in the region. Data for the water column heat content in the western Mississippi Bight were available at a mooring site on the 20 m isobath (Site CP) during August-October of 2018. Unusually high heat content was observed, relative to the typical summer conditions of previous years (N = 13), which resulted from the compounding effects of atmospheric events in the preceding months (August and September): a series of smaller mixing events (e.g., passage of Tropical Storm Gordon) in conjunction with a regional heatwave during most of September. Tropical Storm Gordon traveled across the shelf of the Mississippi Bight, disrupting the stratified water column as observed at Site CP. The stratification breakdown mixed the upper water column heat content deeper into the water column and subsequently allowed for the anomalously warm atmospheric conditions in September to effectively transfer heat deeper into the water column. While the mooring site was significantly distant (250 km) from the center of Hurricane Michael, these processes observed in the western Mississippi Bight likely occurred in the eastern portion of the basin as well. As a result of these compounding atmospheric effects, the shelf water column was primed to support the intensification of following tropical storms, which highlights the need for coupled oceanic-atmospheric forecast models to capture the interaction between the ocean and atmosphere and its effect on water column conditions on the shelf.