Operational Beach Water Quality Nowcasts using Weather Radars and the Weather Forecasting Model (WRF)

Ihan-Jarek Acevedo, University of Puerto Rico-Mayagüez, Department of Civil Engineering and Surveying, Mayagüez, PR, United States, Sylvia Rodríguez-Abudo, University of Puerto Rico Mayaguez, Department of Engineering Science and Materials, Mayaguez, PR, United States, Priscila Vargas, Center for Applied Ocean Sciences and Engineering, University of Puerto Rico Mayaguez, Mayaguez, PR, United States; University of Puerto Rico, Department of Civil Engineering and Surveying, Mayaguez, PR, United States, Patricia Chardon-Maldonado, University of Puerto Rico Mayaguez, Caribbean Coastal Ocean Observing System, Mayaguez, PR, United States, Jesiniel Nieves, University of Puerto Rico-Mayaguez, Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Mayaguez, PR, United States and Julio M Morell, University of Puerto Rico Mayaguez, Caribbean Coastal Ocean Observing System, Mayaguez, United States
Abstract:
The Caribbean Coastal Ocean Observing System (CARICOOS) operates several beach water quality products to provide beachgoers with the latest information of bacteria levels at local beaches. Said data is provided by monitoring efforts with slow sampling frequencies (3-14 days) and long processing times (1-2 days). In order to provide more frequent assessments of beach water quality, CARICOOS has developed two nowcast models for Rincón Public Beach and Guánica’s Playa Santa, both resulting from multivariate regression analyses. These nowcast models have a strong level of intermittency, as they completely rely on the availability of input data. A new effort is currently underway to reduce the amount of input parameters required to produce nowcast estimates. Our work strongly relies on a well-documented dependency of bacteria levels to local precipitation. To this end, logical regression analyses is being performed on eight years of precipitation products derived from Doppler Weather Radar. A parallel assessment is also being performed with CARICOOS Weather Research Forecasting Models, WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW. The former has shown to reasonably predict convective precipitation and it is therefore being assessed for beach water quality predictions in areas characterized by strong, short-duration rainfall events. A beta-version of WRF-ARW is also being tested.
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