An Arctic Marine Ecosystem Conceptual Model: The Interactions Matrix Revealed

Johnna Holding, Aarhus University, Aarhus C, Denmark, Kristina Brown, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Institute of Ocean Sciences, Sidney, BC, Canada, Uma Suren Bhatt, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, United States, Henry Huntington, Self Employed, Washington, United States and Carlos M Duarte, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Red Sea Research Center, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
Abstract:
In November 2016, the US Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Office of Naval Research, and National Science Foundation supported a workshop to create a unifying pan-Arctic conceptual model of the current state and future changes of the Arctic Marine Ecosystem (AME). One component of this conceptual model is a matrix of interactions that determine the functioning of the AME. This matrix was developed using a parsimonious list of Key Elements, distributed between five categories: Atmosphere, Land-Ocean/Shelf-Interior Connections, Physical Environment, Biology, and Human Impacts. To determine the strength and direction of connections between Key Elements, direct interactions were characterized in a matrix array by evaluating directionality, relative magnitude, and scientific (un)certainty. Indirect interactions were removed, because these should be captured by chains of direct interactions. In this poster participants can explore connections between Key Elements through an interactive platform. With this participatory presentation we hope to elicit feedback, comments, and criticisms of the interactions presented, including their magnitude and the direction of their effects now and into the future. Discussion generated during this presentation will be used to refine the matrix.
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