Optimizing Stakeholder Requirements with Pan-Regional Ecosystem Predictions

Along the U.S. West Coast, in support of the U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS), three Regional Associations (RAs; NANOOS, CeNCOOS, and SCCOOS) support a mosaic of ocean modeling activities, run as quasi-operational systems that are served on their respective data portals and provide numerous products designed to benefit local to regional end-users to improve management decisions for fisheries, protected species, and ecosystem/public health. Taken together, these platforms provide a holistic view of ocean variability that connects the science and data to regional end-users. The NOAA National Ocean Service Coast Survey Development Laboratory (NOS CSDL) is developing the West Coast Ocean Forecasting System (WCOFS), a high-resolution ocean model spanning coastal and offshore waters relevant to all three RAs. The first implementation of WCOFS is presently in transition to operations within the NOS Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS). With funding from the IOOS Coastal and Ocean Modeling Testbed program, the West Coast RAs and academic leads are advancing coastal ocean modeling, analysis, and prediction through enhancements to the WCOFS model. A major goal is to transition established products relevant to the NOAA Ecological Forecasting Roadmap to be compatible with WCOFS output. This presentation will describe stakeholder requirements for accessible, real-time ecosystem information with focus on potential impacts of the integration of WCOFS. Specific benefits of the improved WCOFS implementation include short-term operational HAB predictions across large swaths of the West Coast., dynamic swordfish species and bycatch maps, ocean acidification forecasts, marine protected area conditions, and real-time information for shipping routes. Importantly, stakeholder requirements include the impact of hindcast reanalyses on the ability to predict coupled physical and biological processes.