Unified Forecast System Development and Operational Implementation Plans for Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Predictions at NCEP/EMC
NWS is accelerating Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) modeling as part of NOAA’s UFS, consisting of six coupled component models of the Earth system: the FV3 dynamical core for the atmosphere, MOM6 for the ocean, Noah MP for the land surface, GOCART for aerosols, CICE5/CICE6 for sea ice and WW3 for ocean surface waves.
UFS development and operational implementation efforts are centralized and built using community based tools (NEMS, NUOPC, and ESMF). Advancement in model physics and data assimilation are achieved using CCPP and JEDI. The R2O plans are further facilitated through the development of unified workflow and MET+ for verification and validation. All these initiatives involve significant engagement with the research community, with emphasis on research transitioning to operations (R2O).
This talk describes the major challenges in S2S prediction that project onto NWS requirements, and NWS plans and progress in the development of the coupled prediction system with coupled data assimilation for sub-seasonal to seasonal scales. We will also describe the strategy for enabling a robust R2O framework and user support system, and procedures for accelerated transition of advanced community research into operations.