Real-time Forecasts of Acidification and Hypoxia in the Chesapeake Bay: Model Setup and Online Visualization

Real-time nowcasts (current conditions) and 2-day forecasts of environmental conditions in Chesapeake Bay have been continuously available online since February 2017. The current environmental conditions and forecasts are estimated using a coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model that runs daily. Continuous model input files have been developed from daily real-time forecast input files, allowing for continuous model simulations and efficient validation of the real-time model, without having to wait years for multiple years of real-time forecasts to use for calibration and validation. This technique was used to refine the real-time model inputs and improve the accuracy of the forecast model. Nowcasts and 2-day forecasts now include salinity, water temperature, pH, aragonite saturation state, dissolved oxygen, hypoxic volume and chlorophyll. Online visualization of the forecasts through the Virginia Institute of Marine Science (www.vims.edu/hypoxia) and MARACOOS Oceans Map (http://oceansmap.maracoos.org/chesapeake-bay/) webpages provide public access to the forecasts. Modifications to the real-time graphics have been made over time based on stakeholder input. For example, graphics of the water depth to 3 mg L^-1 dissolved oxygen and focused maps of water temperature and salinity in the Virginia tributaries and lower Bay were added at the request of fishermen and oyster aquaculturists, respectively. This presentation will describe the general setup of the environmental forecast system, how previous real-time model inputs are used to validate and improve the real-time model, and the continual revision of graphics based on stakeholder input.