Vulnerabilities and Responses of Northeast U. S. Fishing Communities to Shifting Species

Ocean waters on the Northeast U. S. continental shelf have warmed rapidly in recent years, and climate models project this warming to continue. Associated changes in species distributions and productivity are already affecting fishing communities, as they face declines in traditionally-fished species and the appearance of emerging species in their fishing areas. The local impacts of these changes depend on the nature and rate of ecosystem change, patterns of dependence on marine resources, and adaptation capacity and choices. We use climate projections to drive species models as a basis for conducting port-scale assessments of social-ecological vulnerabilities to climate-related species changes. Results of this assessment provide insights into relative vulnerability of fishing communities from Maine to Virginia. In addition, we use fishery-dependent data to evaluate how fisheries are already responding to species shifts and conduct interviews with fishermen and municipal officials to identify adaptation options of interest as changes continue in the future. Finally, we consider a suite of adaptation scenarios within economic models to assess the extent to which different adaptation approaches may buffer impacts of species changes and create new opportunities for fisheries in specific communities. Ultimately, this information provides a foundation for decision-making and climate adaptation planning at community and regional scales as well as insights into policy and institutional needs to support the resilience of fishing communities in the context of climate change.