Four-Dimensional Lagrangian Analysis, Numerics, and Estimation Systems (4D-LANES)

Pierre F J Lermusiaux1, Patrick Haley Jr2, Christopher Mirabito3, Manan Doshi4, Kyprianos Gkirgkis4, Wael Hajj Ali5, Chinmay Kulkarni2, Baptiste Mourre6 and CALYPSO team, (1)Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Cambridge, MA, United States, (2)Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States, (3)Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Cambridge, United States, (4)Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, United States, (5)Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Mechanical Engineering, Cambridge, MA, United States, (6)Balearic Islands Coastal Observing and Forecasting System (SOCIB), Palma de Mallorca, Spain
Abstract:
We utilize our new Lagrangian transport theory and methods to forecast, characterize and quantify ocean processes involved in the three-dimensional transports and transformation of water masses and subduction dynamics in the Alboran Sea. We apply our multi-resolution submesoscale-to-regional-scale ocean modeling system with 2-way nesting and ensemble uncertainty predictions for real-time forecasting and process studies. Initial conditions are downscaled from three different modeling systems: 1/12o HYCOM, 1/24o CMEMS, and ~1/50o WMOP, to reach high-resolution simulations with tidal forcing. We showcase the Eulerian and Lagrangian forecast skill by comparison with independent observations. We analyze the multiscale ocean flow physics, Lagrangian flowmaps, 2D and 3D Lagrangian Coherent Structures, and 3D subduction regimes and dynamics. We thank all of the CALYPSO team members for their inputs and collaboration.
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