PC34A:
Near-Term Prediction of the Ocean: Physics, Biogeochemistry, and Ecosystems II Posters

Session ID#: 84917

Session Description:
Predicting near-term (seasonal to multidecadal) changes in ocean physical and biogeochemical processes and ecosystems is of interest both from a climatic perspective, for resource management, as well as understanding undergoing changes in the marine environment. Recent advances in seasonal to subseasonal (S2S) and subseasonal to decadal (S2D) predictions using data assimilation techniques in ocean and Earth system models have generated a new field of study in near-term ocean predictability. This broad and interdisciplinary topic enriches understanding of physical, chemical, and biological processes and their internal variability apart from anthropogenic forcings through integration of a wide range of observations and model simulations.

In this session we invite studies that contribute to predictions of ocean physics, biogeochemistry, and ecosystems. Both predictions in individual component of the ocean and contributions to the interplay among predictability in the physics, biogeochemistry, and ecosystems are welcome. Moreover, data assimilation and initialization strategies in facilitating initialization of the state-of-the-art Earth system models with observations, together with perfect model framework in understanding the predictability, is particularly relevant to this session.

Co-Sponsor(s):
  • OC - Ocean Change: Acidification and Hypoxia
  • OM - Ocean Modeling
  • PI - Physical-Biological Interactions
Index Terms:
Primary Chair:  Filippa Fransner, Geophysical Institute Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Co-chairs:  Hongmei Li1, Nicole S Lovenduski2 and Tatiana Ilyina1, (1)Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany(2)University of Colorado, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States
Primary Liaison:  Filippa Fransner, Geophysical Institute Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Moderators:  Hongmei Li, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany and Filippa Fransner, Geophysical Institute Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Student Paper Review Liaison:  Filippa Fransner, Geophysical Institute Bergen, Bergen, Norway

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

 
Improving the near-term estimate of air-sea CO2 exchange by merging models and observations with machine learning (Invited) (654983)
Lucas Gloege1, Galen A McKinley2, Monica Yan3 and Tian Zheng3, (1)Lamont -Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States, (2)Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States, (3)Columbia University of New York, Palisades, United States
 
Estuarine forecasts at weather to subseasonal scales (653113)
Andrew Ross1, Charles A Stock2, Keith W Dixon3, Marjorie A. M. Friedrichs4, Raleigh R Hood5, Ming Li5, Kathleen Pegion6, Vincent S Saba7 and Gabriel A Vecchi1, (1)Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States, (2)NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ, United States, (3)NOAA, Princeton, NJ, United States, (4)Virginia Inst Marine Science, Gloucester Point, VA, United States, (5)University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science Horn Point Laboratory, Cambridge, MD, United States, (6)George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States, (7)NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service, Princeton, NJ, United States
 
Evaluation of Ocean Forecast within GloSea5 with Multivariable Integrated Evaluation Index (651451)
Jieun Wie1, Hyomee Lee2, Byung-Kwon Moon1, Hyojin Park3, Pil-Hun Chang4, Johan Lee5 and Yoonjae Kim5, (1)Chonbuk National University, Jeonju, South Korea, (2)National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Global Environment System Research Division, Seogwipo, Korea, Republic of (South), (3)Gimje Girls' High School, South Korea, (4)National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Earth System Research Division, Seogwipo, South Korea, (5)National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo, South Korea
 
Exploring sources of error in decadal predictions of the Pacific surface and sub-surface ocean (646215)
Daniela Faggiani Dias, Colorado State University, Atmospheric Sciences, Fort Collins, CO, United States, Stephen G Yeager, NCAR, Oceanography, Boulder, CO, United States and Arthur J Miller, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States
 
Linear Inverse Model Approach to Forecasting Regional Dissolved Oxygen (646150)
Daoxun Sun, Georgia Institute of Technology Main Campus, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA, United States and Takamitsu Ito, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, United States
 
Potential predictability of marine ecosystem drivers (645747)
Thomas L Froelicher1, Luca Ramseyer2, Christoph Raible1 and Keith B Rodgers3, (1)University of Bern, Climate and Environmental Physics, Bern, Switzerland, (2)University of Bern, Switzerland, (3)IBS Center for Climate Physics, Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea
 
Predictability in California Current System: the role of the North Pacific forcing and the asymmetric response to La Niña vs El Niño (654909)
Tongtong Xu, Georgia Institute of Technology Main Campus, Atlanta, GA, United States, Yingying Zhao, Georgia Institute of Technology Main Campus, Program in Ocean Science & Engineering, Atlanta, GA, United States, Emanuele Di Lorenzo, Georgia Inst Tech, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA, United States and Kevin A Haas, Georgia Tech Savannah, Civil Environmental Engineering, Atlanta, GA, United States
 
Near-term predictions of ocean biogeochemistry in the Community Earth System Model (640474)
Nicole S Lovenduski, University of Colorado, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States, Stephen G Yeager, NCAR, Oceanography, Boulder, CO, United States, Riley Xavier Brady, University of Colorado at Boulder, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States and Kristen M. Krumhardt, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States
 
Reconstruction and prediction of the ocean carbon sink variations (647073)
Hongmei Li, Tatiana Ilyina, Wolfgang A. Müller and Peter Landschuetzer, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany