PC41A:
Ecosystem Forecasts and Projections I

Session ID#: 92898

Session Description:
Big changes are happening in the ocean. However, global trends in ocean heat content, physics, and biogeochemistry may not accurately represent changes in coastal regions where modulation by local processes plays a crucial role. Coastal oceans support productive, economically important ecosystems that are essential to dependent coastal communities. Therefore, it is vital that we consider the extent to which local processes modulate global trends in order to effectively anticipate climate change manifestation in coastal systems. Ocean simulations that resolve coastal processes can provide mechanistic insights into dynamics that drive local variability in ecosystem-relevant parameters such as temperature, oxygen content and carbonate chemistry. This session welcomes studies focused on ocean projections and forecasts for coastal ecosystems and ecosystem-relevant conditions on decadal to climate timeframes. We invite presentations on development and/or analysis of these projections, as well as studies utilizing downscaled ocean products to advance our understanding of projected or paleobiological changes to marine communities or ecosystems, and/or that discuss how such projections can be used to assist marine resource/conservation management decisions at regional, national, or international scales.
Co-Sponsor(s):
  • CP - Coastal and Estuarine Processes
  • ME - Marine Ecology and Biodiversity
  • OC - Ocean Change: Acidification and Hypoxia
Primary Chair:  Samantha A Siedlecki, University of Connecticut, Groton, CT, United States
Co-chairs:  Elizabeth Drenkard, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Princeton, Princeton, NJ, United States, Peter Kalmus, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States and Enrique Curchitser, Rutgers University, Department of Environmental Sciences, New Brunswick, NJ, United States
Primary Liaison:  Samantha A Siedlecki, University of Connecticut, Groton, CT, United States
Moderators:  Elizabeth Drenkard, Woods Hole Oceanographic Inst., Falmouth, MA, United States and Enrique Curchitser, Rutgers University, Department of Environmental Sciences, New Brunswick, NJ, United States
Student Paper Review Liaisons:  Elizabeth Drenkard, Woods Hole Oceanographic Inst., Falmouth, MA, United States and Peter Kalmus, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Atlantic Salmon Migration Timing Determined by Ocean Temperature Phenology (655052)
Katherine Mills1, John Kocik2, Owen Mulvey-McFerron3, Jason Valliere4, Andrew Thomas5 and Miguel Barajas1, (1)Gulf of Maine Research Institute, Portland, ME, United States, (2)NOAA fisheries, Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Orono, ME, United States, (3)University of North Carolina, Institute of Marine Sciences, Morehead City, NC, United States, (4)Maine Department of Marine Resources, Bangor, ME, United States, (5)University of Maine, Orono, ME, United States
Assessing the Reliability of Species Distribution Model Projections in the Face of Climate and Ecosystem Regime Shifts: Small Pelagic Fishes in the California Current Ecosystem (652799)
Rebecca G Asch, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC, United States, Keo Chan, Princeton University, NJ, United States and Joanna Sobolewska, Princeton Unversity, NJ, United States
Dynamically downscaled climate projections for the California Current Upwelling System (652872)
Mercedes Pozo Buil, University of California Santa Cruz, Institute of Marine Sciences, Santa Cruz, GA, United States, Michael Jacox, University of California-Santa Cruz, San Francisco, CA, United States, Jerome Fiechter, University of California Santa Cruz, Ocean Sciences, Santa Cruz, CA, United States and Michael A Alexander, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Physical Science Division, Boulder, United States
Importance of simulating coastal biogeochemical processes for projections of ocean acidification on the Bering Sea shelf (648645)
Darren Pilcher1, Jessica N Cross2, Albert J Hermann1, Samuel Mogen3, Kelly Kearney1 and Wei Cheng4, (1)University of Washington, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, Seattle, WA, United States, (2)NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, United States, (3)University of Virginia, Charlottesville, United States, (4)University of Washington, JISAO, Seattle, WA, United States
Recent satellite-measured SST trends and 21stcentury climate model SST projections in North American east coast Large Marine Ecosystems (645697)
Andrew Thomas, University of Maine, Orono, ME, United States, Quinn Carey, University of Maine, School of Marine Sciences, Orono, ME, United States, Michael A Alexander, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Physical Science Division, Boulder, United States and Nicholas Record, Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, East Boothbay, United States
Climate change effects on shelf sea’s connectivity and oceanographic provinces (650260)
Claudia Gabriela Mayorga Adame1, James Harle2, Jason T Holt3, Yuri Artioli4 and Sarah Wakelin3, (1)National Oceanography Centre, Liverpool, United Kingdom, (2)National Oceanography Centre, UK, Liverpool, United Kingdom, (3)National Oceanography Center, Liverpool, United Kingdom, (4)Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Plymouth, United Kingdom
Identifying coral refugia from observationally weighted climate model ensembles (656950)
Peter Kalmus, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States, Emily Lei Kang, University of Cincinnati Main Campus, Cincinnati, OH, United States, Amy J Braverman, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Uncertainty Quantification and Statistical Analysis Group, Pasadena, United States and Michelle M Gierach, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, United States
Effects of Sea Level Rise on the Seasonal Hypoxia of Chesapeake Bay (653394)
Pierre St-Laurent1, Marjorie A. M. Friedrichs1, Ming Li2 and Wenfei Ni3, (1)Virginia Institute of Marine Science, Gloucester Point, VA, United States, (2)Univ of Maryland Ctr for Env., Cambridge, MD, United States, (3)University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Cambridge, MD, United States