Coastal Eco-morphological Real-time Forecasting (CERF) System

Abstract:

Coastal zones are one of the most productive and dynamic eco-geomorphic systems in the world. They are natural resources for food, commerce, recreation, protection and cultural identity. In 2007, it has been estimated that around 10% of the global population lives in coastal zones, and the number of people who live in flood-prone coastal areas is increasing. Clearly, protection and prevention from flooding, hurricanes, and storms, is becoming extremely important. This threat will be further amplified by sea-level rise and subsidence, caused by both natural and anthropogenic factors. Therefore, the ability to predict the occurrence of extreme events and their effects is, nowadays, tremendously important.

The Water Institute of the Gulf, together with Deltares, has developed a forecasting and information system for a pilot location in Coastal Louisiana, specifically Barataria Bay and Breton Sound Basins in the Mississippi River Deltaic Plain. This area is experiencing a high rate of land loss; the safety of local communities, the protection of the wildlife and of the unique environments is a high priority in this region. The system is designed to provide a seven-day forecast of water level, salinity, and temperature, under atmospheric and coastal forecasted conditions, such as freshwater riverine inflow, rainfall, evaporation/evapotranspiration, wind, and tide. The Flood Early Warning System FEWS is used as a platform to import multivariate environmental data from several sources, to use them to monitor the pilot location and to provide boundary conditions to the model. A hindcast model is applied with the aim to compare the model outputs to the observed data, and to provide the initial condition to the forecast model.

In this initial phase of the development, the system provides valuable information regarding the overall conditions of the basins and offers the opportunity to adaptively manage existing and planned diversions to meet certain salinity and water level targets or thresholds while maximizing land-building goals.

In the next future, the ability of the system will be extended to include the effect of storms, cold fronts and hurricanes. Therefore, the system will be a powerful tool in order to predict the effects of extreme events and to respond effectively, avoiding damage and saving lives.