An ecological perspective on extreme climatic events (ECEs)

Abstract:

Climate extremes, such as severe drought, heat waves and periods of heavy rainfall, can have profound consequences for ecological systems and for human welfare. Global climate change is expected to increase both the frequency and intensity of climate extremes and there is an urgent need to understand their consequences for ecosystems. Major challenges for advancing our understanding of the ecological consequences of climate extremes include 1) having sufficient knowledge of systems so that extreme ecological responses can be identified and 2) being able to attribute a climate extreme as the driver of an extreme response, defined as an extreme climatic event (ECE). Although the occurrence of ECEs may be common in observational studies, studies in which climate extremes have been experimentally imposed often do not result in ecosystem responses outside the bounds of normal variability of a system. Thus, ECEs likely occur much less frequently than their potential drivers and even less frequently than observational studies suggest. Future research is needed to identify the types and timescales of climate extremes that result in ECEs and the potential for interactions among different types of climate changes and extremes. There also a need to set climatic and ecological baselines to facilitate determination of ECES. These research priorities require the development of alternative research approaches to impose realistic climate extremes on a broad range of ecosystems.