How Common Is Strong Upwelling Over The Cusp?

Abstract:

Presently there is direct contradiction between the literature in the Satellite, ISR, and polar FPI-network communities, as to whether strong thermosphere-upwelling events, doubling densities/drag over the cusp, occur regularly or almost never (i.e. are highly suspect). We apply recent theory and modeling, to find these seeming contradictions are to the contrary a logical consequence of known morphology and observational practice. All become reconciled within the more complete theory. We define a new simple experiment that could prove this reconciliation of presently perceived contradiction, to dissolve current obstacles to a class of space sciences research and publications. With greatly improved spatial resolution [degrees of latitude] Luhr et al. (2004, 2012) discovered repeated satellite-drag/density enhancements up to density/drag doublings over the cusp. With a ground based experiment unprecedentedly designed explicitly to successfully test/prove a previously unconsidered causative mechanism, Carlson et al (1998, 2012, 2016) combined high time resolution [order a minute] coincident ISR FPI and satellite-drag data], and confirmed recurring up to density doublings. Both the satellite and ISR community separately concluded that recurring strong thermosphere upwelling events were clearly the cause. The ground based polar FPI community has logically concentrated on the unique contribution of mapping mesocale thermosphere circulation and temperatures driven by E Region forcing near ~100-140 km and response time ~an hour. The more recently discovered upwelling mechanism driven by magnetic reconnection near the magnetopause, deposits energy ~160-190 km, of transient onset/decay each ~ 5 minutes. This requires and instrument to stare overhead, not map an area. The small target (~1°latitude width) must be directly overhead for the ~15 minute event to be seen by a ground based FPI (horizontal winds preclude off angle). Three teams (UIO, UCL, USU) spent two winters at Svalbard to get one good night’s confirmation. Upwelling has nil effect for ~500 m/s upwelling, but can double density by ~2-3 km/s. Real time DMSP data (plasma flow with electron precipitation) could support near term prediction. A dedicated polar FPI network experiment could confirm common ground for all three communities.