An NRL Demonstration System for the Prediction of Medium- and Small-Scale Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances Triggered by Tropospheric Weather

Abstract:

The U.S. Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) is developing a demonstration system for physics-based forecasts of medium- and small-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (MSTIDs) triggered by deep-propagating gravity waves from underlying tropospheric weather sources. The system couples three (previously standalone) physics-based Navy models to provide the necessary end-to-end dynamical coupling pathways: (1) the Coupled-Ocean Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS^®); (2) new Fourier-based models of thermospheric gravity-wave evolution (FGMs), based on linearized gravity-wave equations including molecular viscosity and thermal conduction, and; (3) a high-resolution version of NRL’s physics-based ionospheric model known as “SAMI3.” A novel aspect is that we have developed two different FGMs for communicating gravity-wave influences from forecast weather in COAMPS into ionospheric responses modeled by SAMI3: one based on a new space-time generalization of the Fourier-ray method, and another based on solutions to linearized equations containing explicit viscosity-wave and thermal-conduction-wave modes. We show results from this demonstration system in application to MSTID events in the recent past over the US associated with deep convective thunderstorm activity.