Coupled Model Simulations of Space Weather Extremes: Challenges and Results

Welling, Daniel

Coupled Model Simulations of Space Weather Extremes: Challenges and Results

Thursday, 14 February 2019: 16:10

Fountain I/II (Westin Pasadena)

Daniel T Welling¹, Michael Warren Liemohn², Gabor Toth³, Agnit Mukhopadhyay⁴, Delores J Knipp⁵, Jesse R Woodroffe⁶ and Michael G Henderson⁶, (1)University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX, United States, (2)University of Michigan, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, (3)University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, (4)University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, (5)University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States, (6)Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States

Abstract:

Coupled MHD-ring current-ionosphere models have become a staple in space weather research. They allow users to simulate the magnetosphere-ionosphere response, down to surface-level magnetic perturbations to arbitrary solar wind inputs. This capability is important for forecasting and for exploring hypothetical extreme space weather conditions. Simulating extreme events is challenging, as it pushes the limitations of such models. Special settings, grid configurations, and other considerations must be employed to produce meaningful results.

This talk discusses extreme event modeling with Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF). Three models are coupled through the SWMF: the BATS-R-US MHD model, the Rice Convection Model for the ring current, and the Ridley Ionosphere Model for ionospheric electrodynamics. Results are shown both for hypothetical extremes and for the August 4 1972 extreme storm sudden commencement. Comparisons are made between predictions and measurements of ground magnetic perturbations at different real world observatories. Special considerations and settings required to perform these simulations and their influence on the results will be discussed.