Forecasting Space Weather with Global Solar Magnetic Maps

Reliable estimates of the global solar photospheric magnetic field distribution, used as the primary input to nearly all coronal and solar wind models, are critical for accurate modeling and forecasting of solar and heliospheric magnetic fields. For the past five years, the ADAPT (Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric flux Transport) model has operated continuously in a prototype mode at the National Solar Observatory, generating global photospheric magnetic maps in near real-time. Progress toward the forecasting of key space weather parameters, up to 7 days in advance, using SIFT (Solar Indices Forecasting Tool) with the ADAPT model will be reviewed. Details regarding the SIFT forecasting method summarized here are outlined in Henney et al. 2012 and Henney et al. 2015. The new method utilizes the solar near-side magnetic field distribution estimated with the ADAPT flux transport model as input to the SIFT empirical models that predict typical input parameters to ionospheric and thermospheric models, e.g., selected bands (between 0.1 to 175 nm) of solar soft X-ray (XUV), far ultraviolet (FUV), and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance, along with observed F10.7 (solar 10.7 cm, 2.8 GHz, radio flux), the sunspot number (SSN), and the Mg II core-to-wing ratio. Input to the ADAPT model includes photospheric magnetograms from the NISP (NSO Integrated Synoptic Program) ground-based instruments, GONG and VSM. The ADAPT flux transport model evolves an ensemble of realizations, using relatively well-understood transport processes during periods for which there are no observations, and updates the ensemble using data assimilation methods that rigorously take into account model and observational uncertainties. We have updated the ADAPT model to utilize line-of-sight and vector magnetograms, along with helioseismic far-side detections, from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) to create global radial field distribution maps. We also plan to incorporate data from the Polarimetric and Helioseismic Imager (PHI) on Solar Orbiter into ADAPT to provide uniquely vital full-disk vector magnetogram input from the far-side and higher latitude polar regions. ADAPT model development is supported primarily by AFRL, with additional support from NASA.