414:
Toward the Quantitative Assessment of Models of the Inner Heliosphere and Near-Earth Environment


Session ID#: 43051

Session Description:
Considerable effort has gone into the development of models that specify or forecast conditions in the inner heliosphere and near-Earth environment. The performance of these models, however, is often underemphasized in the literature. Such assessment is essential if space weather is going to have a broad impact. This session provides a forum for modelers to present and discuss the quantitative assessment of model performance. For this session presentations related to models of the solar irradiance, flare prediction, CME initiation, solar wind parameters, the magnetosphere, and thermospheric and ionospheric conditions are solicited. Presentations on the general topic of assessing model performance, particularly with regards to forecasting, are also of interest. This session will have a traditional format, with a mix of invited and contributed talks as well as posters.
Primary Convener:  Harry Warren, Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC, United States
Convener:  Graham Barnes, NorthWest Research Associates Bellevue, Bellevue, WA, United States
Chairs:  Harry Warren, Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC, United States and Ignacio Ugarte-Urra, Naval Research Laboratory, Space Science Division, Marcae, United States

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

414.01
Community-wide Initiatives for Heliospheric Model Verification (Invited) (335727)
M. Leila Mays, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Heliophysics Science Division, Greenbelt, MD, United States, Christine Verbeke, KU Leuven, Centre for mathematical Plasma-Astrophysics, Leuven, Belgium, Ian G Richardson, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States; University of Maryland College Park, Department of Astronomy, College Park, MD, United States, Eric T Adamson, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States, Victor J Pizzo, NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, CO, United States, Pete Riley, Predictive Science, Inc., San Diego, CA, United States, Aleksandre Taktakishvili, Catholic University of America, Washington, DC, United States, Michael S Marsh, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom and Mark Dierckxsens, Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy, Brussels, Belgium
414.02
Development of new metric evaluations for magnetic in situ solar wind model forecasts at L1 (Invited) (334690)
Neel Savani, University of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD, United States, Daikou Shiota, National Institute of Information and Communications Technology, Tokyo, Japan and Dusan Odstrcil, George Mason University Fairfax, Computational and Data Sciences, Fairfax, VA, United States
414.03
Forecasting Space Weather with Global Solar Magnetic Maps (334514)
Carl J Henney1, Kathleen Shurkin1 and Charles Nickolos Arge2, (1)Air Force Research Laboratory, Albuquerque, NM, United States, (2)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States
414.04
Evaluating the WSA Model’s Predictive Performance (334616)
Charles Nickolos Arge1, Carl J Henney2, Kathleen Shurkin3, Michael S Kirk1 and Samantha Wallace4, (1)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (2)Air Force Research Laboratory Kirtland AFB, Kirtland AFB, NM, United States, (3)Air Force Research Laboratory, Albuquerque, NM, United States, (4)University of New Mexico, Physics and Astronomy, Albuquerque, NM, United States
414.05
Quantitative Assessment of Inner Magnetospheric Models Using Both Science and Engineering Metrics (334641)
Yihua Zheng1, Yiqun Yu2, Vania K Jordanova2, Suk-Bin Kang3, Mei-Ching Hannah Fok1, Lutz Rastaetter1 and Maria M Kuznetsova4, (1)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (2)Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States, (3)KAIST Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon, Korea, Republic of (South), (4)NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States
414.06
MAG4’s New Database of HMI Active-Region Vector Magnetograms: Sample Size and Initial Results for Major-Flare Forecasting (335455)
David Allen Falconer, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL, United States, Sanjiv K Tiwari, Lockheed Martin Solar and Astrophysics Laboratory, Palo Alto, CA, United States and Ron L Moore, National Space Science and Technology Center, Huntsville, AL, United States
414.07
Operational Flare Forecasting Benchmarks and Initial Performance Comparisons (335477)
K D Leka1, Sung-Hong Park2 and Graham Barnes1, (1)NorthWest Research Associates Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)Nagoya University, ISEE, Nagoya, Japan
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