Community-wide Initiatives for Heliospheric Model Verification

M. Leila Mays, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Heliophysics Science Division, Greenbelt, MD, United States, Christine Verbeke, KU Leuven, Centre for mathematical Plasma-Astrophysics, Leuven, Belgium, Ian G Richardson, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States; University of Maryland College Park, Department of Astronomy, College Park, MD, United States, Eric T Adamson, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States, Victor J Pizzo, NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, CO, United States, Pete Riley, Predictive Science, Inc., San Diego, CA, United States, Aleksandre Taktakishvili, Catholic University of America, Washington, DC, United States, Michael S Marsh, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom and Mark Dierckxsens, Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy, Brussels, Belgium
Abstract:
There are many models that predict space weather phenomena in the heliosphere, but how well do they perform? Model verification with appropriate metrics allows the community to quantify advancements in predictive capabilities and science understanding. In April 2017 the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) held a workshop to kickstart a community-wide "international forum for space weather modeling capabilities assessment." Its goals are to define metrics to assess the current state of space weather modeling capabilities and to help capture scientific progress in models that feed into operations. To address the goals of the forum, six physical domains were identified, with 22 working teams, each establishing a set of relevant metrics and event time periods to quantify the performance of current and future models. This presentation will focus on the status of the "CME arrival time and impact" and "SEP" working teams. The CCMC has also been facilitating real-time forecast verification projects led by the international space weather community to test predictive capabilities before event onset. These "Scoreboards" allow a consistent real-time comparison of various operational and research forecasts. Current scoreboard projects include: (1) CME arrival time and geomagnetic storm strength, (2) flare occurrence probability, (3) SEP onset, duration, peak flux, probability, and overall profile, and (4) IMF Bz at L1. The scoreboards enable world-wide community involvement in real-time predictions, foster community validation projects, and ultimately help researchers improve their forecasts.
Back to: Toward the Quantitative Assessment of Models of the Inner Heliosphere and Near-Earth Environment