H14F:
Uncertainty and Sensitivity in Models and Observations and Their Impacts on Decision Making Related to Geological, Hydrological, and Environmental Applications I

Session ID#: 4939

Monday, 15 December 2014: 4:00 PM-6:00 PM
3011 (Moscone West)
Chairs:  Ray G Anderson, USDA-ARS, U.S. Salinity Laboratory, Riverside, CA, United States and Dr. Velimir monty V Vesselinov, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, United States
Primary Convener:  Ray G Anderson, US Department of Agriculture - Agricultural Research Service, US Salinity Laboratory, Riverside, United States
Co-conveners:  Dr. Velimir monty V Vesselinov, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, United States, Hoshin Vijai Gupta, University of Arizona, Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, Tucson, AZ, United States and Todd H Skaggs, US Salinity Lab, Riverside, CA, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Todd H Skaggs, US Salinity Lab, Riverside, CA, United States
Co-Sponsor(s):
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • B - Biogeosciences
  • GC - Global Environmental Change
Index Terms:

0426 Biosphere/atmosphere interactions [BIOGEOSCIENCES]
1622 Earth system modeling [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1873 Uncertainty assessment [HYDROLOGY]
1880 Water management [HYDROLOGY]
Virtual Option?: No
Swirl Theme: Characterizing Uncertainty

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

H14F-01
Addressing Conceptual Model Uncertainty in the Evaluation of Model Prediction Errors (Invited) (5413)
Jesus Carrera, Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA), CSIC, c/ Jordi Girona 18, 08034, Barcelona, Spain and Maria Pool, National Center for Groundwater Research and Training, Adelaide, SA, Australia
H14F-02
The Elephant in the Room: Spatial Heterogeneity and the Uncertainty of Measurements and Models (Invited) (3144)
Joseph G Alfieri, USDA Agricultural Research Service, Hydrology and Remote Sensing Laboratory, Beltsville, MD, United States, William P Kustas, USDA ARS, Hydrology and Remote Sensing Lab, Beltsvillle, MD, United States, John H Prueger, U. S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, National Laboratory for Agriculture and Environment, Ames, United States, Nurit Agam, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Blaustein Institutes for Desert Research, Beer Sheva, Israel, Christopher M U Neale, University of Nebraska, Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute, Lincoln, NE, United States and Steven R Evett, USDA ARS Conservation & Production Research Laboratory, Bushland, TX, United States
H14F-03
A Peep into the Uncertainty-Complexity-Relevance Modeling Trilemma through Global Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis (7585)
Prof. Rafael Munoz-Carpena, Ph.D.1, Stuart J Muller2, Maria Chu3, Greg A Kiker4 and Stephen G Perz2, (1)University of Florida (Visiting Professor at Public University of Navarra, Spain), Agricultural and Biological Engineering, Gainesville, FL, United States, (2)University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States, (3)University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Urbana, IL, United States, (4)University of Florida, Gainesville, United States
H14F-04
What Do We Mean By Sensitivity Analysis? The Need For A Comprehensive Characterization Of Sensitivity In Earth System Models (17251)
Saman Razavi, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada and Hoshin Vijai Gupta, University of Arizona, Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, Tucson, AZ, United States
H14F-05
Quantifying Uncertainty in Physics-Based Models with Measure Theory (14325)
Troy Butler, University of Colorado Denver, Denver, CO, United States
H14F-06
Hierarchical Mixture of Experts and Diagnostic Modeling Approach to Reduce Hydrologic Model Structural Uncertainty (16044)
Edom Melesse Moges, Washington State University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Pullman, WA, United States, Yonas Demissie, Washington State University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Richland, WA, United States and Hong-Yi Li, Lehigh University, Bethlehem, United States
H14F-07
A new framework for quantifying uncertainties in modelling studies for future climates – how more certain are CMIP5 precipitation and temperature simulations compared to CMIP3? (21889)
Ashish Sharma, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia, Fitsum Markos Woldemeskel, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia, Bellie Sivakumar, Tsinghua University, State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Beijing, China and Rajeshwar Mehrotra, University of New South Wales, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Sydney, NSW, Australia
H14F-08
Model-data Synthesis of Complex CPU-intensive System Models: Application to Geophysics, Hydrology and Ecology (Invited) (5570)
Jasper A Vrugt, UC-Irvine, Irvine, United States
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