Forecasting Seasonal Water Supply Impacts from High Volume Hydraulic Fracturing

Abstract:

With a current moratorium on High Volume Hydraulic Fracturing (HVHF) in New York State, we have a critical opportunity to make baseline predictions of how HVHF development will impact water supplies. Our research focuses on Broome and Tioga counties in New York State’s southern tier. Both counties share a border with Pennsylvania, where heavy HVHF development is currently taking place. It is anticipated that both counties will also experience heavy HVHF development if the moratorium ceases.

Through the use of GIS linked with a transient finite difference groundwater model, we created various HVHF well development scenarios. These scenarios represent historical HVHF development rates from nearby Pennsylvania counties of Bradford, Susquehanna, and Tioga from 2008-2012 as well as an average Pennsylvania rate. The transient finite difference groundwater model simulates how water extraction for HVHF purposes may impact the two study counties water resources over a five-year initial development period.

Results of this research are presented as a first step in water resource management in Broome and Tioga County and define where state and local policies may need further investigation or modification of proposed regulations. In addition results point to future work that needs to be in place should the moratorium lift in order to take advantage of the small window of opportunity to study HVHF water usage through an entire well development lifespan.