Coupled Dynamic Modeling to Assess Human Impact on Watershed Hydrology

Abstract:

Humans are intrinsic to the hydrologic system, both as agents of change and as beneficiaries of ecosystem services. This connection has been underappreciated in hydrology. We present a modeling linkage framework of an agent-based land use change model with a physical-based watershed model. The coupled model framework presented constitutes part of an integrated assessment model that is being developed to study human-ecosystem interaction in Missisquoi Bay, spanning Vermont and Québec, which is experiencing high concentrations of nutrients from the Missisquoi River watershed. The integrated assessment approach proposed is comprised of linking two simulation models: the Interactive Land-Use Transition Agent-Based Model (ILUTABM) and a physically based process model, the Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys). The ILUTABM treats both landscape and landowners as agents and simulates annual land-use patterns resulting from landowners annual land-use decisions and Best Management Practices (BMPs) adaptations to landowners utilities, land productivity and perceived impacts of floods. The Missisquoi River at Swanton watershed RHESSys model (drainage area of 2,200 km²) driven by climate data was first calibrated to daily streamflows and water quality sensor data at the watershed outlet. Simulated land-use patterns were then processed to drive the calibrated RHESSys model to obtain streamflow nutrient loading realizations. Nutrients loading realizations are then examined and routed back to the ILUTAB model to obtain public polices needed to manage the Missisquoi watershed as well as the Lake Champlain in general. We infer that the applicability of this approach can be generalized to other similar watersheds.

Index Terms: 0402: Agricultural systems; 1800: Hydrology; 1803: Anthropogenic effects; 1834 Human impacts; 6344: System operation and management; 6334: Regional Planning