Optimizing Parameters of Process-Based Terrestrial Ecosystem Model with Particle Filter

Abstract:

Present terrestrial ecosystem models still contain substantial uncertainties, as model intercomparison studies have shown, because of poor model constraint by observational data. So, development of advanced methodology of data-model fusion, or data-assimilation, is an important task to reduce the uncertainties and improve model predictability. In this study, I apply the Particle filter (or Sequential Monte Carlo filer) to optimize parameters of a process-based terrestrial ecosystem model (VISIT). The Particle filter is one of the data-assimilation methods, in which probability distribution of model state is approximated by many samples of parameter set (i.e., particle). This is a computationally intensive method and applicable to nonlinear systems; this is an advantage of the method in comparison with other techniques like Ensemble Kalman filter and variational method. At several sites, I used flux measurement data of atmosphere-ecosystem CO2 exchange in sequential and non-sequential manners. In the sequential data assimilation, a time-series data at 30-min or daily steps were used to optimize gas-exchange-related parameters; this method would be also effective to assimilate satellite observational data. On the other hand, in the non-sequential case, annual or long-term mean budget was adjusted to observations; this method would be also effective to assimilate carbon stock data. Although there remain technical issues (e.g., appropriate number of particles and likelihood function), I demonstrate that the Partile filter is an effective method of data-assimilation for process-based models, enhancing collaboration between field and model researchers.